Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears: Breaking Down the Bears' Game Plan

The Chicago Bears face another must-win game Sunday when Lovie Smith, Josh McCown and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to town.

You know that moment when a first-time head coach of the Bears sits down for his introductory press conference and talks about how important it is to beat the Green Bay Packers?

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While that sentiment is fine in most years, as beating the Packers usually is priority No. 2 behind winning the Super Bowl, the only thing that should matter this week to Bears general manager Phil Emery, head coach Marc Trestman, quarterback Jay Cutler and defensive coordinator Mel Tucker is sucking the life out of Smith and everyone’s favorite quarterback, Josh McCown.

Despite Smith's mild-mannered demeanor, there is no way his blood won’t be boiling a bit when his Buccaneers take the field for the first time. He is going to want to send a message to Emery, Trestman and the Bears front office that firing him after nine seasons was the wrong move. And let’s not forget that the Buccaneers—somehow—are only two games back in the NFC South playoff race.

Somehow, though, it seems like there’s much more on the line Sunday for the Bears than McCown’s Buccaneers.

During Wednesday’s conference call with the Chicago media, McCown was asked if he was surprised by the media and fans’ questioning of Trestman’s leadership. His response was pretty insightful, via Kevin Fishbain of ChicagoFootball.com:

"

As far as how I understood and what I understood last year, I felt like [Trestman] was consistent with his message as well and didn’t waiver from that. I don’t know if that’s changed or not, I believe again, like I said about Lovie, that’s a hard thing to do is to stick to your guns and to stick to what you believe is right in the midst of turmoil or things that aren’t going your way.

I appreciate that from Marc and I felt it last year and I think it was one of the main things that helped me play at the level I played at.

"

The good thing for Emery, Trestman and Co. is that Sunday’s game is being played at Soldier Field, so if the Bears do somehow trip, fall and manage to break everything in the process, there won’t be a need for the team bus to drop them in an abandoned parking lot after the game. They simply can walk home.

In all seriousness, though, it’s very, very difficult to envision a scenario in which at least Trestman and Tucker have offices at Halas Hall come Black Monday if this game is lost. But if the Bears win and move to 5-6 on the season, it will restore a small level of hope for the postseason. And when there’s hope, there’s a way.

Sunday’s game will be so very interesting on so many levels. So let’s just go ahead and dive right into this week’s game preview.

For the Bears, it all starts with Cutler (who else) and the offense.

Here’s the most obvious statement you’re going to read all day: The team that scores the most points Sunday will win the game.

Sunday’s game is going to be all about scoring points. While beating Smith is a big priority, even if no one will publicly acknowledge it, building momentum for the rest of the season is paramount.

The Bears offense has averaged a very pedestrian 21.5 points per game, good for 19th in the league. The Bears should be shooting for a 40-burger against Smith's Cover 2 defense. Doing so will send a message to the rest of the league.

For the Bears to reach 40 points, running the ball would be a good way to get started. Even though Matt Forte’s 26 carries last week against Minnesota tied the second-most he’s had in his career, the Bears didn’t start the game by running. Forte had only three carries in the first 20 plays of the game.

There still appeared to be too much checking into pass plays at the line of scrimmage. Trestman generally will send Cutler to the line with two plays to choose from, one run and one pass, based on what look the defensive is showing.

The good thing for Cutler is he’s familiar with Smith's defense. The Buccaneers have been playing Cover 2, a scheme devised to make the opponent drive down the field in small chunks without making a mistake. But a solid running attack can break the Cover 2 by forcing the safety to move up into the box, leaving areas of the field exposed.

This is why establishing the run is important for the Bears. It sets up the ability to run play-action and use misdirection. Running the ball sets up those over-the-top plays you saw last week from Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.

Tampa Bay’s run defense is allowing 118.2 yards per game this season. Looking at the Bucs’ box scores, three games stick out—Atlanta in Week 3, New Orleans in Week 5 and Baltimore in Week 6.

Game	Opponent	Total attempts/yards/TDs	Primary success (attempts/yards)
Week 3	Atlanta Falcons	36-144-3	15-73 outside the tackles
Week 5	New Orleans Saints	29-140-2	13-74 outside the tackles
Week 6	Baltimore Ravens	35-169-1	15-106 up the gut

In those three games, the Buccaneers were gashed for 453 total yards and six touchdowns. Atlanta and New Orleans gained a good majority of their respective yards running outside the tackles, which is where the Cover 2 pushes the running backs, because the defensive linemen are supposed to be plugging the gaps. Baltimore, on the other hand, found more success running up the gut.

The key for the Bears will be moving the offensive line, making Tampa’s defensive line move laterally, so a rhythm can’t be established. Forte isn’t the fastest back in the league, but he does have great patience when waiting to a hole to open.

Forte wlll see a lot of action in both the run and pass, likely just as much as he saw last week, a season-high 32 total touches. But there needs to be a healthy balance of both run and pass.

Last week, the balance on offense (58.1 percent pass to 41.9 percent run) was nearly an identical split to what we saw last season (58.9 percent pass vs. 41.1 percent rush) from the Bears, when the Trestman-coached offense was averaging nearly 28 points per game. That, once again, needs to be the goal.

Cutler will have opportunities to beat the Buccaneers secondary, but in order to do so, he might have to move the pocket to get away from a beastly defensive tackle who plays like a defensive end, Gerald McCoy. McCoy is the one guy on Tampa's defense the Bears need to be afraid of. He's a one-man quarterback wrecking machine. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rates McCoy as the top pass-rusher in the NFL, and it's not even close. 

If and when Cutler has time to get rid of the ball, one guy to target is Tampa Bay's big offseason free-agent pickup, Alterraun Verner. The former Tennessee Titans cornerback has been awful this season in pass coverage, allowing a quarterback rating of 127.5 and five touchdowns against, tied for fifth-most in the NFL.

What’s even better for the Bears is the hamstring injury Verner has been dealing with. The cornerback missed last week’s game against Washington, so there’s little chance he’s going to be 100 percent come Sunday.

There’s an opportunity there to be exploited. Cutler, Marshall and Jeffery were able to exploit size mismatches against Minnesota, and they will have another chance this week against Verner, who stands 5’10”.

For the Bears to make a late-season charge to the postseason, Marshall and Jeffery will have to regain the form that made them the most lethal wide receiver combo in the NFL last season.

While the offense as a whole looked better in the win over Minnesota, the lack of scoring and Cutler’s two interceptions still leave room for concern. That will need to be cleaned up Sunday against a team whose coach preaches turnovers, turnovers, turnovers.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay has a pass-catching duo that resembles what the Bears have in Marshall and Jeffery. Rookie Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson have been on a tear of late—Evans specifically.

The rookie has gone over 100 yards in each of the past three games, recording five touchdowns along the way. Evans is the NFC’s reigning Offensive Player of the Week, and you can bet that he’s going to look back and see the damage New England and Green Bay caused and laugh at the possibilities.

Evans and Jackson both are very large men on the football field, each standing at 6’5”. Based on how poorly the Bears secondary has played against some of the league’s best receivers, there is no way any Bears player can allow Evans or Jackson to get a free release off the line.

When asked about Evans, Trestman referred to him as a “build-up-speed guy.” Well, the only way to stop a guy from building speed off the line is to knock him around before he gets into his route.

Neither of these guys is a perfect route-runner. Trying to throw them both off their timing with McCown is a good plan to install. McCown has only played in two games since the middle of September, so he’s still working off some of that early-season rust.

He acknowledged as much in his Wednesday conference call, via Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times:

The first-year Buccaneers quarterback has struggled under pressure so far this season, completing just 53.5 percent of his passes on 23-of-43 passing with one touchdown and six interceptions. McCown’s struggles should play right into the current strength of the Bears defense—the pass rush.

Last week against Minnesota, Jared Allen had his best game of the season, recording one sack and three quarterback hits. Willie Young also added a sack, his first in the last four games after racking up seven in the first six games. Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater looked to be playing scared or rattled, and that happened because he faced pressure in the form of a pass rush.

Like Bridgewater, the Bears need to try and rattle McCown, who admitted Wednesday that this game might be a little emotional for him, via ESPN Chicago’s Jeff Dickerson:

Despite the poor records between these two teams, there isn’t a better game on the schedule this weekend. So many storylines ride on the outcome. Can Trestman and Cutler justify Emery’s decision to fire Smith by blowing out the Buccaneers? On the other side, will there be any ramifications if the Bears get blown out by Smith and McCown?

Cutler is going to have the weight of the world on his shoulders Sunday afternoon on the Chicago lakefront. This game could be a springboard for him to repair his image among Bears fans.

On top of that, this game has playoff implications, as the Bears need to win their final six games just to be in the conversation, while the Buccaneers sit two games back of the NFC South-leading Falcoons.

Strap yourselves in and get your popcorn ready, folks. Sunday’s game will be one that's talked about as either the breaking point or the launching point for this Bears team.

Prediction: Bears 41, Buccaneers 17

All quotes transcribed from press conference audio unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) unless otherwise noted.