New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

Not too long ago the New York Jets owned the rivalry with the Buffalo Bills, winning six meetings in a row. But Buffalo has won and covered three of the last four meetings, including a lopsided decision at MetLife Stadium one month ago. The 5-5 Bills look to climb above the .500 mark when they host the 2-8 Jets Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Bills opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 39.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 20.7-12.0 Bills

Why the Jets can cover the spread

The Jets finally put together a winning effort last time out, snapping an eight-game losing steak with a 20-13 victory over the Steelers. It's almost too bad New York then had last week off. The Jets jumped out to a 17-0 first-quarter lead, with help from a pair of Michael Vick touchdown passes, and the defense held from there, keeping Pittsburgh, which had scored 94 points over its previous two games, out of the end zone until just over a minute remained in the game.

New York, which has been out-rushing opponents all season, did it again against the Steelers, winning the ground battle by a 150-36 margin. It finally led to a victory and a cover.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills had won two games in a row, and three of four, before losing tough games back-to-back to Kansas City and Miami the last two weeks. Buffalo led the Chiefs through three quarters 13-3, but lost 17-13, and it led the Dolphins late into the third quarter but lost 22-9. The Bills only rank 25th in the league in total offense but sixth in total defense and ninth against the run.

Quarterback Kyle Orton has been just fine since taking over the starting spot from EJ Manuel, completing 64 percent of his passes, compiling a 10/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Buffalo just needs a little help from its run game.

Smart Pick

The Jets have out-rushed opponents by 58 yards per game this season; the Bills have been out-rushed by three YPG. So far this NFL season teams that have won the ground battle are 109-53 SU and 107-50 ATS. So the smart choice here is with New York, plus the points.

Betting Trends

• NY Jets is 2-4 ATS in its last six games when playing Buffalo
• The total has gone over in five of Buffalo's last six games when playing NY Jets

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.