Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts are 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in their last four games against the division rival Jacksonville Jaguars. Coming off a bad home loss to New England, the 6-4 Colts get a welcome foe to help get them back on the winning track when they host the 1-9 Jags Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Colts opened as 14-point favorites; the total was 50.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.8-12.7 Colts

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jaguars have struggled, as one might expect, with rookie Blake Bortles learning the ropes at quarterback. However, they've had a bye week to work with, after losing to Dallas in London two weeks ago 31-17, so perhaps they've put those extra practices to good use.

Just prior to the Cowboys game, Jacksonville held its own with Cincinnati, pushing the spread as a 10-point dog. Before that, the Jags actually outrushed and outgained Miami, but they gave up two defensive touchdowns in a 27-13 defeat. Just before that, they upset Cleveland, and just before that, they lost but covered against Tennessee. Finally, Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in its last nine divisional road contests.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts just lost at home to the Patriots 42-20, but they only trailed by one score early in the fourth quarter before allowing New England to ice the game with a pair of insurance touchdowns. Indy had won five games in a row recently, both SU and ATS, before losing at Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, so it's trying to regain a little of its lost mojo.

Jacksonville is the perfect opponent at this time, considering the Colts' recent domination of the Jags. Indianapolis leads the league in total offense and ranks third in scoring at 31 points per game. Finally, the Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six divisional home games.

Smart pick

The Colts have won the last four games in this series by an average of almost 25 points per game, and they'll have the bounce-back factor on their side. So the smart choice here is with Indy, giving the points.

Betting trends

• Jacksonville is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games
• Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.