Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots will try to extend their NFL-best six-game winning streak to seven when they host the Detroit Lions on Sunday. The Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals have both won six in a row, and the Lions could end up losing to in consecutive weeks after falling 14-6 at Arizona last Sunday as one-point road favorites.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.6-25.3 Patriots

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit struggled offensively last week, but the team’s defense played well for most of the game, pitching a shutout the rest of the way after giving up two early touchdowns in the first quarter. The Lions also lead the NFL in run defense, allowing just 68.8 yards per game on the ground.

That bodes well against a New England team that saw running back Jonas Gray explode for 199 yards and four touchdowns last week in a 42-20 rout of the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night.

If the Patriots do not run the ball as effectively, that will put more pressure on quarterback Tom Brady, who has been at his best when he has more balance in the offense.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England is 7-3 against the spread in its past 10 games as a home favorite and has looked awesome outside of a minor hiccup against the New York Jets back in Week 7. If you take that game out of the equation, the Patriots have won the other five games during their six-game winning streak by an average margin of nearly 23 points.

The emergence of Gray as a physical runner is exactly what they needed right now. It allows Brady to mix things up a lot more effectively in the passing game rather than letting opponents simply key on him and react to where he is throwing the ball.

Smart pick

Detroit’s struggles away from home are too much to overlook in this spot, as the team is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog. The Lions are also 2-5 straight up and ATS in the last seven meetings with New England, and playing back-to-back road games on opposite ends of the country will be very difficult for them.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are coming off a big road win at Indianapolis and have proved time and time again that they could very well be the best team in the league at formulating an effective game plan to stop the opposition. New England’s secondary shut down the Colts through the air last week and will do the same here against Detroit.

Betting trends

• The total has gone under in eight of Detroit's last nine games.
• New England is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.