St. Louis Rams vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The St. Louis Rams may be just 4-6 both straight up and against the spread on the season, but they own victories over both of last season's Super Bowl teams. St. Louis shoots for its first winning streak of the season when it visits 6-4 San Diego Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Chargers opened as six-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.9-14.0 Chargers

Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Rams just pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season so far, a 22-7 drubbing of high-powered Denver. St. Louis outrushed the Broncos 131-28, kept the ball away from the Denver offense for almost 36 minutes and picked off Peyton Manning twice, all in winning straight up as nine-point home dogs.

The Rams also got 113 yards on the ground from rookie Tre Mason, and quarterback Shaun Hill, in his first action since the season opener, connected on 20 of 29 tosses for 220 yards and a 63-yard scoring bomb to Kenny Britt, with zero interceptions. So St. Louis owns victories over defending Super Bowl champion Seattle and the AFC champion Broncos; why wouldn't the Rams be able to take care of the Chargers?

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Bolts just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 13-6 victory over Oakland. San Diego didn't cover as a 10-point favorite, but did what it had to do to secure the victory and stay close in the AFC playoff picture. The Chargers outrushed the Raiders 120-71, outgained them 300-233, won time of possession by a 35-25 margin and committed zero turnovers. Usually, numbers like that are good enough for a cover. San Diego also received a welcome 70 yards on the ground from running back Ryan Mathews, who had missed the last seven games with injury.

Smart Pick

In the up-and-down world that is the NFL, St. Louis seems ripe for a letdown. After their win over the Seahawks a month ago the Rams went to Kansas City the next week and lost 34-7. It won't come as a surprise if something similar happens Sunday. So the smart choice here is with the Chargers, giving the points.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis is 2-6 SU in its last eight games on the road
• San Diego is 7-1 SU in its last eight games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.