Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons, who could barely get out of their own way during the month of October, suddenly find themselves tied for the lead in the NFC South. Still, they're just a 4-6 team, both straight up and against the spread. Atlanta will try to make it three wins in a row when it hosts the 6-4 Cleveland Browns Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Falcons opened as three-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.7-20.9 Browns

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns had won three games in a row before falling at home to Houston last week 23-7. Cleveland simply got outplayed by the Texans, but that's just the kind of performance a team like the Browns—one striving to rise from mediocrity toward playoff-contender status—will give from time to time.

The week prior, Cleveland put a hurting on rival Cincinnati, outgaining the Bengals 368-165 in a 24-3 divisional road victory. The Browns rank 14th in the league in total offense and only 22nd in total defense, but a plus-eight turnover margin has helped. And this week they get wide receiver Josh Gordon back from suspension.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons won back-to-back games for the first time this season after beating the Panthers in Charlotte last week 19-17. And they would own a three-game winning streak had they not given that game away against Detroit in London. Atlanta led Carolina 16-3 after three quarters, allowed the Panthers to take a 17-16 lead, then drove 54 yards for the game-winning field goal.

So after going six weeks between victories, the 4-6 Falcons are tied for first place in the NFC South with New Orleans. Atlanta ranks 10th in total offense, and while the defense has struggled this season, it's held its last three opponents to 19 points per game.

Smart pick

Atlanta has been outgained in each of its last five games and is banged up, especially along the offensive line. Cleveland, meanwhile, after laying an egg last week, has the bounce-back factor on its side. So the smart money here is with the Browns, plus the points.

Betting trends

• Cleveland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last six games on the road.
• Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.