USC Trojans vs. UCLA Bruins Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

Not too long ago, USC dominated its rivalry with UCLA, winning 12 of 13 meetings through 2011, covering the spread three times in a row. But the Bruins are working on turning the tables on the Trojans, winning and covering the last two meetings. In a big game out in the Pac-12 South, USC and UCLA bang heads Saturday night at the Rose Bowl.

Point spread: Bruins opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.0-27.8 Trojans

Why the USC Trojans can cover the spread

The Trojans have won five of their last seven games after beating Cal last Thursday 38-30, and both losses in that span came in the final seconds of both contests. USC led Arizona State back in October 34-32 but gave up a Hail Mary on the last play to lose 38-34. And three weeks ago, the Trojans led Utah 21-17 but gave up a score with eight seconds to go to lose 24-21.

Thursday night, USC jumped out to a 31-2 lead over the Bears before taking its foot off the gas and settling for the eight-point victory. And thanks to the Sun Devils' loss at Oregon State Saturday night, the Trojans now lead the Pac-12 South by a half-game over, among others, ASU and the Bruins.

Why the UCLA Bruins can cover the spread

The Bruins have won four in a row straight up and two in a row against the spread after a 44-30 victory at Washington two weeks ago, covering as six-point road favorites. UCLA led the Huskies 14-0 early, and 31-10 at the half, and in the end had outgained them 476-366. So at 5-2 in Pac-12 play, the Bruins trail the first-place Trojans by just a half-game in the South Division.

A victory Saturday would give them the inside track on the division race heading into a season finale against Stanford.

Smart pick

All signs point to a close contest; UCLA owns a short edge on offense, but USC owns an edge on defense. The Bruins are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS against common opponents this season, while the Trojans are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. But USC is little more banged up at the moment than UCLA. So in a tough call, the smart choice here appears to be the Bruins, at the short spread.

Betting trends

• Southern Cal is 5-2 SU in its last seven games when playing on the road against UCLA.
• UCLA is 2-4 ATS in its last six games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.