North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils: Odds and College Football Pick

The Duke Blue Devils will try to rebound from a disappointing home loss when they host the North Carolina Tar Heels Thursday night in an ACC matchup between intrastate rivals. The Blue Devils are coming off a 17-16 setback to Virginia Tech last week as 3.5-point home favorites and need to beat North Carolina in order to keep their hopes of a second straight ACC Coastal Division title alive.

Point spread: Blue Devils opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 39.5-32.6 Blue Devils

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels can cover the spread

The Tar Heels have endured a rough season, as they started out 2-0 but lost four straight before winning three of their past four. They have not lost a game they were supposed to, though, since falling at East Carolina 70-41 as a 1.5-point road favorite back on September 20.

North Carolina has gone 4-1 against the spread in its last five games, with the only straight-up losses during that stretch coming at Notre Dame and Miami. The Tar Heels have lost the last two meetings with Duke but had won 15 of the previous 16, and it would make their season if they could pull off the upset in Durham.

Why the Duke Blue Devils can cover the spread

The Blue Devils may have just suffered a tough home loss, but maybe they were caught looking ahead to this game against their rivals from Chapel Hill. They are still 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites, including that loss to the Hokies, and can win the division with a victory here and another at home against Wake Forest in their regular-season finale.

Duke is also 4-1 versus the line in its past five home games against conference opponents, with the lone loss coming last week against Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils cannot hang their heads over that and should have plenty of motivation left.

Smart Pick

Duke has too much to play for here to let last week’s loss hang over Wallace Wade Stadium. The Blue Devils went through the most difficult part of their schedule by playing four times on the road in five games before hosting the Hokies, and they managed to earn wins in four of them. This three-game stretch at home to close out the season was set up for Duke to succeed, and the loss to Virginia Tech was just a bump in the road.

While North Carolina has played better lately, the team has lost 10 of 11 games as a road underdog with a 3-8 mark ATS. The Tar Heels have also failed to cover the spread in three of the past four meetings, so back the Blue Devils here.

Betting Trends

• North Carolina is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Duke.
• Duke is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing North Carolina.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.