Louisville Cardinals vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Betting Odds, Analysis, Pick

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will look to avoid suffering their third consecutive loss Saturday when they host the Louisville Cardinals. The Fighting Irish are coming off a shocking 43-40 overtime loss at home to Northwestern last week as 17-point favorites, and they have not lost two in a row at Notre Dame Stadium since 2010.

Point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as nine-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 36.5-23.6 Fighting Irish

Why the Louisville Cardinals can cover the spread

The Cardinals appear to be building some momentum toward the end of the season despite a couple of tough losses to Clemson and Florida State over the past six weeks. They crushed Boston College on the road Nov. 8 38-19 as three-point favorites behind another dominant performance from wide receiver DeVante Parker, who had eight receptions for 144 yards and his first touchdown of the season.

Even though Parker has scored only once in three games, he has clearly made a positive impact on his team with 490 receiving yards on 25 catches, proving why he was considered a first-round NFL draft pick before the season. Finally healthy, he still might end up going that high.

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

Notre Dame is clearly reeling right now, but the odds are against the team losing two straight home games. The Fighting Irish have not had a three-game losing streak since 2010 when they started 1-3.

Defensively, they just need to focus on holding Parker in check and obviously do a much better job than they did in last week’s loss to the Wildcats, who used their running game to overpower them. Notre Dame has had a tendency to play to the level of its competition though, and the team has a 6-1 mark against the spread (ATS) in its past seven games against teams with a winning record.

Smart Pick

This has all the makings of a tight matchup decided by a field goal late, which gives Louisville a great opportunity to cover the spread. The Cardinals are a remarkable 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs, including nine straight covers under that scenario. They are also 6-3 straight up (SU) in their past nine as a road dog, so playing the Fighting Irish away from home will not be too big of deal for them.

If anything, Louisville may be extra motivated to beat Notre Dame as many visitors to South Bend are. Just ask Northwestern’s players, who made the most of their first trip there since 1995. Look for the Cardinals to cherish this visit and at least beat the spread in a close game.

Betting Trends

• Louisville is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games.
• Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark; all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.