Boston College Eagles vs. Florida State Seminoles: Betting Odds, Analysis, Pick

Florida State just keeps winning, but that hasn't meant it's been a good bet. In fact, the Seminoles are just 3-8 against the spread over their last 11 games and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The undefeated 'Noles will be big home chalk when they hit the field at Doak Campbell Saturday against 6-4 Boston College.

Point spread: Seminoles opened as 20.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 40.3-19.1 Seminoles

Why the Boston College Eagles can cover the spread

The Eagles had won back-to-back ACC road games at Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, before losing at home to Louisville two weeks ago, 38-19. BC then had last week off. The Eagles only trailed the Cardinals by five points through three quarters but faded, as BC quarterback Tyler Murphy threw four interceptions, leading directly to 17 Louisville points.

The Eagles have out-rushed eight opponents this season; they're 6-2 both SU and ATS in those games. Finally, BC gave the 'Noles a good battle last year, leading 17-3 before giving way but hanging on for the cover as 23-point home dogs.

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

The Seminoles have won 26 games in a row after rallying to beat Miami last week, 30-26. FSU trailed the Hurricanes early, 16-0, but as it's done several times previously this season, came from behind for a victory. Jameis Winston threw for 304 yards and one score, running back Dalvin Cook ran for 92 yards on just seven carries and the 'Noles defense held the 'Canes to just three points after halftime.

And because it was only favored by two points, Florida State covered the spread. The Seminoles only rank 43rd in the country in total offense and 58th in total defense; they just keep winning games.

Smart Pick

Florida State has won 26 in a row, and there's little reason to believe it won't bump that streak to 27. But as with several games already this season, the Seminoles are probably a bit overrated on the betting line. And Boston College stands a good chance of winning the ground battle in this game, which often leads to covers. So the smart money here resides with the Eagles, plus the points.

Betting Trends

• Boston College is 4-1 SU in its last five games on the road
• The total has gone under in six of Florida State's last seven games at home

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.