New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Two division leaders collide on Sunday Night Football when the AFC East’s New England Patriots visit the AFC South’s Indianapolis Colts. The Patriots and Colts are both coming off bye weeks and will be meeting for the first time since New England beat Indianapolis 43-22 in the divisional playoffs last year as a 7.5-point home favorite.

Point spread: Colts opened as two-point favorites; the total was 57.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34.5-33.0 Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots are riding a five-game winning streak into Indy, and they have gone 4-1 against the spread during this stretch. The lone loss for New England ATS came in a 27-25 victory against the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football as a 9.5-point home favorite sandwiched in between four wins by a combined 101 points.

While the Pats have certainly given up some points during their winning streak, many of them have come in garbage time when the game has not been on the line. Plus, it hardly matters when they more than doubled their opponent’s output in three of the games. New England is 3-0 straight up and ATS in its last three games as an underdog.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts are 7-2 ATS in their past nine games following a bye week and have been outstanding at Lucas Oil Stadium recently, going 7-1 SU and vs. the line in their last eight as home favorites. They know how important this game is, considering it will likely come down to them, the Patriots and the Denver Broncos for the top seed and home-field advantage in the AFC.

Indianapolis is also out for revenge for last year’s playoff loss in which it was thoroughly embarrassed at Gillette Stadium. Now the Colts get the opportunity to return the favor on their own home field. The Colts have won the last two home meetings with New England (although the last game there was back in 2009).

Smart Pick

Home field means a lot in this matchup, especially since the Patriots have not played away from home since visiting the Buffalo Bills more than a month ago. They have had the luxury of playing three consecutive home games in addition to enjoying their bye week before heading to Indy. The Colts have thrived as home favorites, and their only loss in their past seven games SU or ATS came on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers as five-point chalk.

They bounced back with a big 40-24 road victory against the New York Giants the following week on Monday Night Football as three-point favorites and should be pumped for another prime-time game after their break. Look for Indianapolis to continue their strong play at home and end New England’s winning streak with an easy cover.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone over in five of New England's last five games when playing Indianapolis.
• Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last five games when playing New England.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.