Denver Broncos vs. St. Louis Rams Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos are almost always favored—often by big numbers—and still they're 5-1 against the spread over their last six games. Denver will be favored by a big number again when it takes the field at the Edward Jones Dome Sunday to play the 3-6 St. Louis Rams.

Point spread: Broncos opened as eight-point favorites; the total was 50.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.6-14.1 Broncos

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos just bounced back from that loss at New England to beat Oakland last week 41-17, covering the spread as 13-point road favorites. Denver actually trailed in that contest 10-6 late into the second quarter but scored two touchdowns just before halftime and three touchdowns in the third quarter to pull away.

The Broncos outgained the Raiders 471-222, outrushed them 118-30 and have now outgained their last six opponents, including the Patriots, by an average of more than 175 yards per game. Denver ranks third in total offense, fifth in total defense and No. 1 against the run, holding foes to just 67 yards per game on the ground.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

St. Louis just lost at Arizona 31-14, missing the cover as seven-point dogs on the road. But the Rams led that game 14-10 midway through the fourth quarter before allowing a 48-yard Cardinals touchdown strike to fall behind.

St. Louis then lost the cover by giving up a pair of Arizona defensive scores. The Rams may only be 3-6, both straight up and against the spread, but they've beaten defending Super Bowl champion Seattle and San Francisco, and have given Dallas and the Niners tough fights in defeats.

Smart Pick

If this game were being played at Mile High, Denver might be favored by as much as 17 points, so the Broncos are almost a bargain at this week's number. Denver is also 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite on the road since Peyton Manning joined the team. So the smart money here is with the Broncos, giving the points.

Betting Trends

• Denver is 2-4 SU in its last six games when playing St. Louis
• The total has gone over in five of St. Louis's last seven games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.