Cincinnati Bengals vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New Orleans Saints have been a great bet at home over recent seasons, going 24-6-1 against the spread in their last 31 games as favorites at the Superdome. The Cincinnati Bengals, meanwhile, are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 spots as dogs on the road. The 4-5 Saints are touchdown favorites for their game Sunday at home against the 5-3-1 Bengals.

Point spread: Saints opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 50.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.8-20.9 Saints

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals had won two games in a row before laying an egg in a 24-3 loss at home to rival Cleveland last Thursday. But Cincy has shown it can bounce back after poor outings. The Bengals got thumped at New England back in October, but followed that up with a solid performance against Carolina even though they had to settle for a tie.

And after they lost 27-0 at Indianapolis they came back to beat division rival Baltimore 27-24. So it wouldn't be surprising if the Bengals play a good one this weekend.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints are only 4-5 both SU and ATS this season, following last week's 27-24 overtime loss to San Francisco, but four of those five losses have come by a total of nine points. A few plays here and there and New Orleans might be 6-3, or even 7-2. The Saints outgained the Niners last week 423-330, and running back Mark Ingram turned in his third-straight 100-yard rushing performance, but a Drew Brees fumble in overtime cost them the game.

New Orleans ranks second in the league in total offense, and has outrushed opponents by an average of 23 yards per game. So far this NFL season teams that have outrushed their opponents are 99-45 ATS.

Smart Pick

The Bengals are not getting very good play from quarterback Andy Dalton, and their defense has regressed. The Saints, meanwhile, have lost several close games, but trends like that tend to reverse themselves over time. On top of that, New Orleans stands the better chance of winning the ground battle in this game. So the smart choice here is with the Saints, minus the points.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati is 2-3-1 SU in its last six games
• New Orleans is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.