Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta-Carolina rivalry has bounced back and forth over recent seasons; not too long ago, the Falcons beat the Panthers five times in a row, but now Carolina owns a three-game winning streak against Atlanta. The 3-6 Falcons visit the 3-6-1 Panthers Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Panthers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.4-16.1 Falcons

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons just snapped a five-game losing streak with a 27-17 victory at Tampa Bay last week and have covered two spreads in a row. Atlanta managed 100 yards on the ground for the first time in five games, as Steven Jackson came up with his best day of the season, and Matt Ryan hit on 20 of 31 throws, with one touchdown pass and zero interceptions.

That would have been a second consecutive victory for the Falcons, had they not blown that game in London against Detroit.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

It's getting difficult to come up with silver linings when it comes to the Panthers, following four straight defeats, including a 45-21 shellacking at Philadelphia Monday night. Carolina hasn't won a game since beating the Bears back on October 5.

So the Panthers are due, right? Carolina did play Cincinnati to a tie five weeks ago, covering as a seven-point dog, and gave Seattle a tough game three weeks ago, covering as a six-point dog.

And the Panthers swept the season series from Atlanta last year. If they could just run the ball a little, and get a few big plays from Cam Newton (and fewer turnovers), they could win this one.

Smart Pick

Atlanta holds an edge on offense, but Carolina owns an edge on defense. And in situations such as this, the smarter money should go on the better defense. So the smart pick is with the Panthers, at home, at the short spread.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last seven games on the road
• Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last six games when playing at home against Atlanta

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.