TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks: Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

TCU is coming off a big win over Kansas State and still has a shot at both the Big 12 title and a spot in the upcoming College Football Playoff. But the Horned Frogs must now hit the road and play as a favorite, a spot in which they're just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven tries. TCU visits Kansas Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: Horned Frogs opened as 24.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 39.4-17.7 Horned Frogs

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs are 8-1 both straight up and ATS this season, after kicking Kansas State last week 41-20, covering as six-point favorites. TCU piled up 553 yards of offense against the Wildcats, 334 on the ground, and held the ball for over 35 minutes.

So since blowing that late lead and losing at Baylor, the Frogs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, outgaining their last four foes by 233 yards per game and outrushing them by 168 yards per contest.

TCU has beaten Kansas each of the last two seasons, holding the Jayhawks to 12 points and 61 yards rushing per game.

Why the Kansas Jayhawks can cover the spread

The Jayhawks dumped coach Charlie Weis after that 23-0 loss to Texas back in September but are actually 3-2 ATS since then; they just picked up their first Big 12 victory of the season, beating Iowa State last week 34-14 as two-point home dogs. Kansas jumped out to a 24-0 lead and held on from there, accumulating 514 yards of offense, including 228 yards on the ground, as both freshman Corey Avery and senior Tony Pierson hit the century mark.

And quarterback Michael Cummings threw a touchdown pass, improving his touchdown-to-interception ratio to 5/1 over his last three games. Finally, while the Jayhawks have lost to TCU each of the last two seasons, they covered both those spreads, staying within 20-6 as 18-point dogs and 27-17 as 24-point dogs.

Smart Pick

TCU is rolling, putting up huge numbers on offense as it plays to impress the playoff committee. But Kansas hasn't been terrible of late, and might actually come into this game with some momentum after last week's victory.

Also, the Jayhawks have given the Frogs tough games the last two years. So the smart money here resides with the home dog.

Betting Trends

• TCU is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games on the road
• The total has gone under in five of Kansas' last six games at home

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark; all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.