Northwestern Wildcats vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Betting Odds, Analysis

Notre Dame is 6-3-1 against the spread in its last 10 home games against the Big Ten. Northwestern, despite a reputation as a feisty underdog, is just 4-15 ATS over its last 19 games. Two teams coming off disheartening losses meet when the Irish host the Wildcats Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: Fighting Irish opened as 16.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.2-17.9 Fighting Irish

Why the Northwestern Wildcats can cover the spread

The Wildcats had a chance to snap a three-game losing streak last week against Michigan, scoring with three seconds to get within 10-9, but they botched a two-point conversion attempt and lost. They did, however, cover the spread as two-point home dogs.

Northwestern out-gained the Wolverines 264-256, held the ball for almost 32 minutes and went 10-of-20 on third-down conversions, but its three turnovers proved costly. Earlier this year the Wildcats beat Penn State on the road and Wisconsin at home, and lost a tough game at Minnesota, so they are capable of competing. Eliminating the turnovers would help.

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The Irish suffered a meltdown last week against Arizona State, committing five turnovers, two of which were returned for Sun Devils touchdowns, in a 55-31 defeat. Notre Dame actually out-gained ASU 487-412, and after trailing 34-3, they pulled to within 34-31 with six minutes to go. But the rally died when the Devils drove for an insurance score, then tacked on another defensive touchdown for the icing.

The Irish have out-gained seven of nine opponents this season, including their last three foes, yet they've lost two of their last three games. Of course, one of those defeats came thanks to that questionable pass interference penalty in the waning moments against Florida State.

Smart Pick

The Irish are the better team but is Northwestern really that bad? Before the season started many people thought the Wildcats had a chance to win the Big Ten's West Division. And with this game being played in South Bend, the spread is probably a bit inflated toward the home team. So the smart choice here resides with Northwestern, plus the points.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone under in five of Northwestern's last seven games on the road
• The total has gone under in five of Notre Dame's last seven games at home

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.