Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes Betting Odds, College Football Pick

The Florida State Seminoles will face their biggest challenge of the season to date when they visit the Miami Hurricanes in a key ACC matchup. The defending national champion Seminoles opened as 2.5-point road favorites at Miami, their lowest spread since they were 1.5-point road underdogs at Clemson back in 2011. Florida State has been favored in 45 straight lined games heading into this game against the Hurricanes.

Point spread: Seminoles opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.5-27.9 Seminoles

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

The Seminoles have won their last 25 games and only appear to cover the spread when properly motivated. Is this one of those games? It should be considering Miami is an intrastate and ACC rival, and any loss at this point could knock Florida State out of the national title picture.

The Seminoles seem to be able to turn it on whenever they want, like when they were trailing the Louisville Cardinals 21-7 on the road two weeks ago before outscoring them 35-10 in the second half en route to a 42-31 victory.

They are coming off a 34-20 home win against the Virginia Cavaliers last week and should be up to play their final road game of the regular season against the Hurricanes.

Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread

Miami still has an outside shot at the ACC Coastal Division title but would love nothing more than to end Florida State’s epic winning streak and end its run at another national championship. The Hurricanes have looked like one of the best teams in the country over the last month, going 3-0 straight up and against the spread with an average margin of victory of 24 points.

Their only setback during that stretch came on the road against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets as 2.5-point underdogs, and their other two losses this season both came on the road. Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games against ACC opponents and 4-0 versus the line in its past four as a home dog.

Smart pick

The Seminoles are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, and sooner or later their luck will run out. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston has not enjoyed the same kind of success this year on and off the field for Florida State, and it’s starting to catch up to him—the sophomore quarterback has thrown six interceptions in the last three games combined to go along with six touchdowns.

There’s only so much you can try to get away with before an opponent with comparable talent beats you. That’s where the Hurricanes come in. They are that foe who can upset the Seminoles, and they will on Saturday.

Betting trends

• The total has gone under in nine of Florida State's last 13 games when playing Miami
• Miami is 5-0 SU in its last five games at home

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.