California Golden Bears vs. Southern Cal Trojans: Betting Odds and Pick

USC owns the recent rivalry with Cal, winning the last 10 meetings by an average of 20 points per game, going 8-2 against the spread in the process. The Trojans hope to continue that dominance and stay alive in the Pac-12 South race when they host the Golden Bears Thursday night at the Coliseum.

Point spread: Trojans opened as 12-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 39.8-28.9 Golden Bears

Why the California Golden Bears can cover the spread

After winning just one game in their first season under head coach Sonny Dykes last year, the Bears are 5-4 this year and one victory away from bowl eligibility following a 45-31 win at Oregon State two weeks ago. Cal started 4-1, then lost three straight but came up with a big effort against the Beavers, racking up 546 yards of offense, including 269 on the ground.

This led to the Bears picking up their second conference road victory of the season and third road victory overall.

In fact, the Bears are 4-0 ATS on the road this year. And of their four losses, one came on a Hail Mary at the buzzer against Arizona, another on a late field goal against UCLA and they gave Oregon a good tussle a few weeks ago. This program appears to be on the verge of turning the corner.

Why the Southern Cal Trojans can cover the spread

The Trojans bounced back after that tough loss at Utah to win at Washington State a couple weeks ago 44-17, covering as seven-point road favorites. USC broke out to a 24-0 lead and cruised from there, eventually piling up 527 yards of offense. Quarterback Cody Kessler only completed 21 passes against the Cougars, but he threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns.

So over his last three games, Kessler has thrown 14 touchdown passes against just one interception. USC is 6-3 straight up, a somewhat surprising 6-3 ATS and 5-2 in Pac-12 play, which puts it just a half-game out of first place in the Pac-12 South. And the only game in which the Trojans were really outplayed this year came in that bad spot at Boston College back in September, just after the win at Stanford.

Smart pick

USC is the better team, but Cal looks like an up-and-comer. The Bears need a little improvement on defense, but they've been able to keep most of their games close. And the home team is always a bit inflated on the spread. So the smart choice here resides with Cal, plus the points.

Betting trends

• California is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games.
• Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last five games when playing California.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.