Can Kyle Orton Lift Buffalo Bills to Playoffs?

Same old Buffalo Bills? Maybe, maybe not. A heartbreaking 17-13 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs will not give us our answer. We will have to wait until the end of the season to find out.

Same old Kyle Orton? That's a question we have our answer to: an unqualified yes.

The bigger question is whether the same old Orton can help the Bills shed their "same old" label and lead them to the postseason for the first time since 1999. The better question may be whether the Bills have enough talent at other places to complement a serviceable but unspectacular quarterback. 

The Bills starting quarterback had some moments in his first four games at the helm of the offense, but anyone who expected him to sustain a high level of play all season long has not followed the career trajectory of Orton very long.

Past 5 games	Comp	Att	%	Yds	YPA	TD	INT	Rate
Career	Comp	Att	%	Yds	YPA	TD	INT	Rate
at Lions	30	43	69.8	308	7.2	1	1	88.1
vs. Patriots	24	38	63.2	299	7.9	2	1	94.1
vs. Vikings	31	43	72.1	283	6.6	2	1	95.4
at Jets	10	17	58.8	238	14	4	0	142.8
vs. Chiefs	29	48	60.4	259	5.4	1	0	81.9
2014 total	124	189	65.6	1387	7.3	10	3	98.4
2005-2014	1450	2454	59.1	16406	6.7	93	62	81.3

It's understandable. His sample size in Buffalo is very small. He has started 75 games in his career, but only five with the Bills. In those 75 starts, he has thrown more than two touchdown passes only six times (once in five starts with the Bills). By the numbers, he is playing well. He is completing a higher percentage of his throws and has more touchdowns and fewer interceptions on a per-throw basis this year than over the course of his career. His 98.4 passer rating ranks eighth in the NFL.

But Sunday was a better example of what to expect from Orton on a regular basis.

Orton threw 48 passes on Sunday against the Chiefs' No. 1-ranked pass defense, enjoying some early success with a seven-play, 51-yard, three-minute touchdown drive to start the game, capped off by a 25-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Chris Hogan. Orton went 4-of-5 for 48 yards and the touchdown on the drive.

The Bills stormed out of the gate but collapsed on their way to the finish line. With the game on the line and 4:35 left to go, Orton went 1-of-5 for nine yards from the Chiefs' 25-yard line. He missed on four straight throws into the end zone, effectively sealing the deal on the disappointing loss.

Orton has delivered big throws in key moments this season. Look no further than his 42-yard deep strike to wide receiver Marquise Goodwin with less than 10 minutes to go against the Detroit Lions, or his 28-yard pass to wide receiver Chris Hogan with under a minute to go against the Minnesota Vikings.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Those throws, combined with much better decision-making and a better ability to read defenses, make Orton the continued favorite over EJ Manuel to start at quarterback. 

Orton is good enough to give the Bills a chance to win, but not good enough to win games on his own. The coaching staff is clearly aware of this, even though they put the game in his hands against one of the league's best pass defenses.

"I don't think we're asking too much of [Orton]," Bills head coach Doug Marrone said after the game. "I think he'll get better and better as we go. I think that'll help us and some of the things in the run game will help us get better also, taking some of that off him."

But the Bills couldn't ask for much more in the run game than their 111 yards on 22 carries (5 YPA), and achieving that number is especially impressive without C.J. Spiller and with only three carries for Fred Jackson.

So, Orton is now 3-2 as the Bills starter. Manuel was 2-2 before he was unceremoniously extracted from the starting lineup like a dead tooth. The oral surgery may not be over for the Bills yet. Orton looked like the potential savior for the Bills just a couple of weeks ago, following a 43-23 rout of the New York Jets in which Orton threw four touchdown passes.

Now, in a span of five days, he could have the same winning percentage as Manuel at .500.

This is not to say that Orton has not been an upgrade over Manuel. The Bills scored 19.8 points per game with Manuel at quarterback, and 22.4 points per game with Orton under center. Manuel had earned a 27.8 accuracy percentage on passes that traveled 20 yards or more through the air (calculated as (completions and drops) / attempts); Orton's accuracy percentage is 40.

Orton is much better than Manuel on third down; the former has completed 67.3 percent of his throws on third down, while the latter completed 50 percent of his third-down attempts. They converted 33.3 percent of their third downs with Manuel, and are up to 43.8 percent in the past five games with Orton.

Orton has brought out the best in the Bills, but it needs to be even better for the Bills to make the playoffs.

Make no mistake: Orton's performance would have been much better were it not for four drops by his teammates. But his teammates on the other side of the ball did everything they had to do in order to give the Bills a chance to win—just as they have done all season.

The Bills have held their opponent to 20 points or fewer in five of their nine games this season, and they are 4-1 in those games. Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus continued his dominant season with a three-sack performance, and the Bills finished with six sacks as a team. The Chiefs totaled 278 yards of offense, converted only three of 13 third downs (23.1 percent) and punted eight times. 

When the defense plays like that, the offense should be able to do enough to win almost every time.

With a high degree of difficulty to close out their season, they may not be able to get a performance like that from their defense many more times in 2014.

Week	Opponent	Record
11	at Miami Dolphins	5-4
12	vs. New York Jets	2-8
13	vs. Cleveland Browns	6-3
14	at Denver Broncos	7-2
15	vs. Green Bay Packers	6-3
16	at Oakland Raiders	0-9
17	at New England Patriots	7-2

There are three top-five scoring offenses ahead on the schedule (Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots) and one more near the top 10 (Miami Dolphins). The Bills offense faces their own challenges in two top-10 scoring defenses (Dolphins, Cleveland Browns) before the season is done.

The Bills are teetering on the brink of playoff contention, but in order to make it over that hump—and to make some noise when the playoffs start—they will need better play from their quarterback than what he gave them against the Chiefs. He has shown he can do it.

If he can't, it will be up to the rest of the Bills roster to pick up the slack. They have shown they can do it.

A tough remaining schedule will make it difficult, but if the Bills can win four of their final seven games, they will have truly earned their first trip to the postseason in 15 years.

Unless otherwise noted, all quotes obtained via team news release.

Follow @ErikFrenz