Bowl Predictions 2014: Latest Playoff Projections Before Critical Week 12
Week 11 on the college football schedule was supposed to separate the contenders from the pretenders with six showdowns between ranked teams.
While we saw some of that when Ohio State handled Michigan State, Arizona State beat Notre Dame, TCU crushed Kansas State, Alabama outlasted LSU and Utah literally dropped the ball against Oregon, the biggest headline was Texas A&M’s shocking upset over Auburn.
Not only did it likely end the Tigers’ playoff hopes, but it put a major dent into the narrative about two SEC teams making the College Football Playoff field. Mississippi State and Alabama are certainly both still contenders, but they play each other in Week 12, and the Bulldogs still have to battle Ole Miss.
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With that in mind, here is a look at the latest playoff projections heading into a critical Week 12.
Bowl Predictions
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 TCU
Rose Bowl: No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 2 Alabama
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (Semifinal Winners)
Florida State and Alabama will clinch the top two spots in the field of four by winning out and capturing their respective conference championships. That would leave the Seminoles undefeated and the Crimson Tide with only one loss and a number of impressive SEC wins.
Oregon now has the inside track at a one-loss season and a Pac-12 title with only one difficult game remaining on the schedule (the Pac-12 Championship Game against the eventual South Division winner).
TCU will seize the fourth and final spot by winning out against Texas, Iowa State and Kansas. The Horned Frogs may eventually need Baylor to lose since the Bears won their head-to-head showdown, but Kansas State will help TCU out by beating Baylor.
Week 12 Sneak Peek
The headliner of the Week 12 schedule and the game with the biggest playoff implications is the showdown between Alabama and Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs may be No. 1 in the country, but this one is in Tuscaloosa against an Alabama team that could be hitting its stride after a narrow win at LSU. A loss would be crippling to Mississippi State’s playoff chances even with an SEC schedule because it still has to play Ole Miss and would likely lose out on the division crown to the Crimson Tide.
That would raise the question of whether a team can really be the best in the country if it isn’t the best team in its own division.
There is also this bit of information, via Brian Bennett of ESPN:
Outside of the SEC West clash, there are two Week 12 games in particular that should have playoff contenders on upset alert.
Florida State has to travel to Miami to take on the motivated and dangerous archrival Hurricanes, while Ohio State has to go to Minnesota and face an underrated Golden Gophers team. The Seminoles continue to win, which is the most important part of the playoff race, but they haven’t looked as dominant as they did a season ago.
Head coach Jimbo Fisher suggested as much after a Week 11 win over Virginia, via CBS Miami: “Winning is hard. There’s no such thing as a bad win. We knew this was going to be a very physical, good football team.”
As for Minnesota, it destroyed a solid Iowa team in Week 11 and could give the Buckeyes serious problems if the latter is still reveling in its impressive win over Michigan State and overlooking a sleepy noon kickoff against the Golden Gophers.
That game could be too close for comfort for many within the borders of Buckeye Nation.
Other games to watch are showdowns featuring Auburn against Georgia and Nebraska against Wisconsin. While the Tigers and Bulldogs clash lost some luster when Auburn lost to Texas A&M, the game between the Cornhuskers and Badgers is critical in the Big Ten’s West Division.
The winner will have the inside track for a spot in the conference championship game against Ohio State in all likelihood, and the Cornhuskers would be very much alive in the playoff race in that scenario.
Buckle up, because the ride is just getting started.
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