How New England Patriots Safety Patrick Chung Jumps Out on Game Film
For the rest of the season, I'll be doing a New England Patriots weekly film review after each game. The goal will be to focus on a player who stood out in the Patriots' last game but hasn't quite gotten enough mainstream attention. Up this week is safety Patrick Chung.
Every summer, teams fill their training camp rosters out with veteran-camp bodies. Despite a promising start to his career, Patrick Chung looked like the prototype of that label, as the former second-rounder was teetering on the brink of irrelevance after washing out following just a single year in Philadelphia.
However, Chung's second stint in Foxboro has fulfilled the expectations everyone once harbored for the ex-Oregon Duck. A jack-of-all-trades safety, Chung has provided a physical presence in the box for a depleted front seven and become an increasingly viable option against tight ends.
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Indeed, with the Patriots moving to a more physical brand of man coverage, Chung is a much more natural fit on this New England squad than he was when the Pats were a heavy zone team. While he is far from the type of cornerstone a secondary can build around, a la Darrelle Revis or Devin McCourty, Chung is the type of unheralded contributor every defense needs to truly thrive.
Examining the Week 9 win over the Denver Broncos, let's break down some of Chung's most impressive plays, while also examining how the defense may utilize him in future matchups.
Looking Back
Since the middle of 2012, Aqib Talib and his successor Revis have allowed the Patriots to play press-man coverage full time.
This means that New England is able to utilize single-high safety coverages (Cover 1, Cover 3, Cover 6, etc.) on the majority of plays. If the coverage corners are capable, single-high schemes provide the best of both worlds, since they allow a defense to drop an extra man (i.e., a safety) into the box to stymie the run.
With Steve Gregory and Duron Harmon, the Patriots never really employed a natural fit for that "box safety" role the past two seasons. The onus still fell on the linebackers to fill gaps and shed lead blockers. Chung, on the other hand, has absolutely thrived close to the line of scrimmage, so much so that some metrics, such as those provided by PatriotsSB49, see him as the best run-stuffing safety in the league:
Indeed, Chung lined up within eight yards of the line on 64.3 percent of opposing run plays, the sixth-highest mark in the league among all safeties, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Against Denver, that number spiked to 90 percent, the third-highest among safeties with at least 10 snaps against the run last week. As this first-quarter sequence shows, the Pats have effectively adopted a hybrid 4-3 nickel package as their go-to personnel on early downs, with Chung fulfilling the role of "Sam" linebacker:
While his run defense fulfills an important niche, particularly with Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones gone from the front seven, it's Chung's growing relevance as a coverage option that should really excite Pats fans. Against the Broncos, Chung allowed just four completions on nine targets, by far the busiest he has been in coverage this season.
The touchdown he conceded to Julius Thomas was actually one of his finer plays, a textbook example of how to redirect a receiver off his release and maintain good body positioning throughout. This is a case of where the good process is more encouraging than the bad result:
As an aside, it's notable that the Pats decided to split Chung out wide to cover Thomas in an "iso" 3 x 1 formation. Brandon Browner did cover Denver's uber-athletic tight end for most of the game, but Bill Belichick's willingness to utilize Chung in nontraditional safety roles over, say, Logan Ryan or Alfonzo Dennard, bodes well for his future playing time.
Later, Chung would be rewarded on a very similar play, an incomplete pass to Jacob Tamme on 4th-and-goal. This time, Chung lines up in the slot and becomes Peyton Manning's primary target once the natural rub on Darrelle Revis fails. Notice how Chung exhibits the same press technique and ball awareness that he did on the Thomas touchdown:
Manning and the Broncos made a conscientious decision to attack Chung and rookie Malcolm Butler in New England's dime personnel, hardly an unreasonable choice when considering the alternatives.
As alluded to previously, this was easily Chung's most active day in coverage this year, as he had not been targeted more than four times in a single game in 2014. Though he was not perfect, Chung won the majority of his one-on-one matchups while wearing a multitude of different hats throughout the game.
Looking Forward
For the last seven games, the question is whether or not the Pats will continue to use Chung in these situations. With young corners Ryan and Dennard having fallen out of favor, it appears as though Chung's three-down role is becoming increasingly secure. Check out his weekly snap progression, which shows a noticeable uptick in passing-down snaps:
| 1 (@ MIA) | 29 | 3 | 16 | 48 | 63.2 |
| 2 (@ MIN) | 14 | 0 | 23 | 37 | 53.6 |
| 3 (vs. OAK) | 21 | 1 | 20 | 42 | 70.0 |
| 4 (@ KC) | 29 | 0 | 17 | 46 | 68.7 |
| 5 (vs. CIN) | 16 | 1 | 32 | 49 | 89.1 |
| 6 (@ BUF) | 22 | 1 | 37 | 60 | 87.0 |
| 7 (vs. NYJ) | 33 | 2 | 44 | 79 | 90.8 |
| 8 (vs. CHI) | 21 | 4 | 31 | 56 | 80.0 |
| 9 (vs. DEN) | 14 | 0 | 55 | 69 | 83.1 |
At this point, it seems clear that he at least deserves an opportunity to correct some of New England's issues covering opposing tight ends. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, a per-play measure of success rate, the Pats defense ranks 26th against opposing tight ends. More specifically, opposing tight ends have produced a DVOA 20.5 percent above league-average when going against the Patriots.
With Jamie Collins being a bit overstretched and failing to take a step forward, the Pats have no real natural remedies to that problem. That was never more obvious than in Week 6, when Buffalo Bills tight end Scott Chandler shredded the Patriots for 105 yards on six catches.
Chandler essentially kept the Bills offense afloat that day—Buffalo's running game averaged 3.0 yards per carry, while Revis held Sammy Watkins to just two catches for 27 yards.
New England tried everyone on Chandler that day, as those in coverage on the tight end included Collins, Deontae Skinner, Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, Tavon Wilson, Duron Harmon and even Chandler Jones. Chung had one opportunity to cover Chandler, which resulted in a 28-yard gain after Chung got picked off on a well-designed man coverage beater:
Chung figures to receive an opportunity to redeem himself in Week 17, when Buffalo visits Foxboro. In addition, against future opponents who utilize ample 12 personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB) such as the Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions, Chung should see plenty of sub-package snaps in addition to his base personnel role in the box.
One speculative thought: How will Chung's base package role evolve when New England's front seven depth improves? His current role is mostly a happy accident, as the combination of injuries and poor depth accumulation has necessitated it. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see what happens with trade acquisitions Akeem Ayers and Jonathan Casillas, as well as when Jones returns.
Still, given how Chung is playing at the moment, it has become impossible to remove him from the lineup. The sentiment surrounding the safety at the moment is likely one of cautious optimism, since he has flashed his talent in the past, only to frustrate with his inconsistency.
But the pessimistic view doesn't seem grounded in the evidence we have this season, as Chung has never strung together this many games as an above-average contributor (PFF has not graded him negatively since Week 1).
While he will never occupy the defense's most glamorous role, Chung's surprising combination of versatility and durability has proven invaluable so far, as his emergence has been one of the Patriots' best redemption stories of 2014.
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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