Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers have won three games in a row straight up and against the spread, moving into a near tie atop the AFC North. Pittsburgh also owns a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS against the New York Jets, beating them in each of the last three seasons. The Steelers hope to extend those streaks to four when they visit the 1-8 Jets on Sunday afternoon in New Jersey.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.4-14.7 Steelers

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers have won their last three games, beating Houston, Indianapolis and Baltimore, piling up 124 points, and covering three straight spreads. Two weeks ago, Ben Roethlisberger threw six touchdown passes in a 51-34 victory over the Colts. Last week, he threw six more touchdown passes in a 43-23 romp over the Ravens.

Pittsburgh spotted Baltimore the first seven points last week and then outscored the Ravens 43-16 from there. For the season, the Steelers rank third in total offense and 14th in total defense. Finally, Pittsburgh beat the Jets 19-6 one year ago at MetLife Stadium, covering as a one-point favorite.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

The Jets are a puzzling bunch. By the numbers, this team should be better than it is right now. New York outgained and outrushed its last three opponents but lost all three games, extending its losing streak to eight. Last week, the Jets outgained and outrushed Kansas City and won time of possession by a 32-28 margin but came up empty on five drives inside Chiefs territory and lost 24-10, missing the cover as nine-point dogs.

Two weeks ago, New York outrushed Buffalo 175-67 but lost 43-23. And three weeks ago, the Jets outrushed New England 218-63 but lost 27-25. One of these days, New York is going to put together a team effort and beat somebody. Whether head coach Rex Ryan will be around to see it is uncertain.

Smart pick

So far this NFL season, teams that have outrushed their opponents are 88-47 SU and 88-43 ATS. The Jets rank third in the league in rushing at 140 yards per game and seventh against the run, giving up just 88 yards per game. Yet New York is 1-7-1 ATS. Obviously, there's something else going on with this team.

Statistically speaking, the Jets may seem to have a chance here, but the smart money resides with the team with the better attitude, and that's Pittsburgh.

Betting trends

• Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games when playing on the road against the Jets.
• New York is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Pittsburgh.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.