Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons have lost five games in a row after giving one away against Detroit last time out, and they are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) over that span. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost four games in a row and six of their last nine ATS. In the worst matchup on this week's NFL betting board, the 2-6 Falcons and the 1-7 Bucs meet in Tampa Bay Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Buccaneers opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.1-12.1 Falcons

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The injury-riddled Falcons are terrible at the moment, but Tampa may be even worse. The Bucs just lost at Cleveland 22-17, although they did manage to cover as seven-point dogs. Tampa actually led by a point in the fourth quarter, but it gave up a Brian Hoyer touchdown pass with nine minutes to go and came up empty from there.

The Bucs would be 0-8 (along with Oakland) if Pittsburgh hadn't handed them their only win back in September. Tampa ranks 31st in total offense, 29th in rushing, 31st in total defense and 18th against the run; those are not exactly numbers that instill much fear in bettors seeking fade plays.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Since a 2-1 start, the Falcons have gone winless, including a 22-21 decision against Detroit in London two weeks ago. Atlanta led that game early 21-0, but it allowed the Lions to rally for the victory on a field goal at the buzzer.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan hit on 20 of 27 throws with two touchdown passes, but he threw one of the worst interceptions this league will see this season, leading to an earlier Detroit field goal. Now, without its entire starting offensive line because of injuries, Atlanta ranks eighth in total offense—but 25th in rushing—dead last in total defense and 25th against the run.

Smart Pick

The smartest money on this game is probably the cash you keep in your pocket instead of risking it on either of these two teams. Ultimately, the edge on offense goes to the Falcons, but the short edge on defense goes to the Bucs. And the better defense usually beats the better offense. So the “smart” choice here resides with Tampa.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta is 2-4-1 ATS in its last seven games when playing on the road against Tampa.
• The total has gone under in four of Tampa's last six games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.