Miami Dolphins vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Miami Dolphins own a three-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread; the Detroit Lions also own a three-game SU winning streak, and are 5-1 SU over their last six games. Two teams playing some pretty good ball hook up when the Dolphins visit the Lions at Ford Field Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Lions opened as two-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.4-22.0 Lions

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the league, going 4-1 both SU and ATS over their last five games. The only loss during that span came at the buzzer against Green Bay. Miami just slammed San Diego last week 37-0, breezing to a cover as a field-goal favorite. The Dolphins outgained the Chargers 441-178, won time of possession by a 36-24 margin and picked off Philip Rivers three times.

Miami ranks 11th in total offense, third in total defense and has outrushed opponents by a 137-104 yards-per-game advantage.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions have somehow won three games in a row without All-World wide receiver Calvin Johnson, retaining first place in the NFC North in the process. And they've shown a flair for the dramatic in the last two games; three weeks ago Detroit scored twice in the last four minutes to steal a 24-23 victory from New Orleans, and two weeks ago in London the Lions rallied from down 21-0 to beat Atlanta 22-21 on a field goal at the buzzer.

Defensively, Detroit leads the league in total yardage and points allowed, and while the offense only ranks 20th, it hopes to get both Johnson and Reggie Bush back this weekend.

Smart Pick

This should be a good, tough game between two closely matched teams. Miami is more balanced on offense, but Detroit gets the edge on defense. The Dolphins are coming off a win in which almost everything went their way. However, they might be without leading rusher Lamar Miller, who suffered a shoulder injury last week.

Meanwhile, the Lions had last week off to recover from the trip aboard, and may get Johnson and/or Bush back. So the smart money here resides with Detroit.

Betting Trends

• Miami is 4-1 SU in its last five games
• The total has gone under in six of Detroit's last seven games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.