Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears renew the NFL’s oldest rivalry on Sunday night at Lambeau Field. Both NFC North teams return from bye weeks after heading in opposite directions. The Packers have dominated the Bears recently, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings straight up and going 9-3 against the spread in those games.

Point spread: The Packers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 53 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.4-17.1 Packers

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago has gotten off to a disappointing 3-5 start, but there were still a few moments in the team’s first half of the season that were positive. Road wins at the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets are among the highlights the Bears can look back on and try to use as building blocks for the second half, especially heading into a tough divisional game at Green Bay.

Their offense has shown flashes of brilliance at certain points but has yet to really put a full game together. Chicago head coach Marc Trestman will likely try to help his players forget their brutal performance on the road against the New England Patriots and focus on beating the Packers, which could help turn the team’s season around and provide some confidence for an easier schedule down the stretch.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay has been in the head of Bears quarterback Jay Cutler ever since he was traded to Chicago, so all the Packers need to do is keep doing what has made them successful. Keep in mind, when the Bears won at Lambeau last season, Cutler was out with an injury—replaced by backup Josh McCown—and Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone early on, giving way to a very ineffective Seneca Wallace.

The Packers know how to defend Cutler better than any team in the NFL, and their record against him proves it. They are 10-1 against him, including the 2011 NFC Championship Game. Until Cutler proves otherwise, the Pack owns him.

Smart pick

The betting trends are just too overwhelming in Green Bay’s favor to look elsewhere. Not only have the Packers gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against NFC North opponents in addition to their dominance against Chicago, but they are also 7-0-1 versus the line in their past eight games after a bye.

In addition, they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bears are just 5-12 versus the line in their past 17 road games against divisional foes, including 1-5 in their last six. These are two teams trending in different directions, so ride with the winners from Wisconsin.

Betting trends

• Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
• Green Bay is 15-4-1 SU in its last 20 games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.