Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida State Seminoles: Odds, College Football Pick

Florida State owns a 24-game winning streak, including eight in a row to start this season, but is just 2-6 against the spread this year as it battles fired-up foes and tough point spreads almost every week. After avoiding an upset last week at Louisville, the Seminoles host Virginia for homecoming in Tallahassee Saturday night.

Point spread: Seminoles opened as 21.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 47.0-27.0 Seminoles

Why the Virginia Cavaliers can cover the spread

The Cavaliers started this season with four wins and five covers through their first six games, although they've been slowed recently thanks to tough losses to Duke and North Carolina. Earlier this year, Virginia gave UCLA a tough game in a 28-20 loss, beat Louisville, gave BYU a tough game out in Provo and won at Pitt.

The Cavs also outgained both the Blue Devils and the Tar Heels in defeat. For the season, Virginia ranks a bit pedestrian on offense but 28th overall on defense and 20th against the run.

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

The Seminoles seem to be able to turn the juice on whenever needed. Last week, FSU trailed the Cardinals 21-0 late in the second quarter but rallied to score 42 of the last 52 points of the game for a 42-31 victory and cover as a four-point road favorite.

Quarterback Jameis Winston threw 48 times in come-from-behind mode, three of which went for interceptions, but also made several big throws, three for scores, including one that iced the cover with two minutes to go. By the numbers, the 'Noles don't overly impress; they just keep winning games.

Smart pick

While Florida State has shown the ability to turn its game up a notch whenever needed, they've also needed to do so several times this season. And playing at home means the point spread is probably inflated toward the 'Noles. So the smart pick here is with underdog Virginia, plus the points.

Betting trends

• Virginia is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Florida State.
• Florida State is 4-2 ATS in its last six games when playing at home against Virginia.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.