Texas A&M Aggies vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

After a promising start to this season, Texas A&M hit the skids, losing three games in a row straight up and four in a row against the spread. The Aggies stopped that slide last week with a win over Louisiana-Monroe, but still couldn't cover the spread. Things don't exactly get easier this week when A&M hits the SEC road to play the defending conference champion Auburn Tigers Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Point spread: The Tigers opened as 14.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 45.2-40.0 Tigers

Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread

Kenny Hill made a big splash earlier this season, taking over at quarterback for the departed Johnny Football, but his play regressed in recent weeks and ultimately the Aggies had to make a change, going with freshman Kyle Allen last week.

And it worked, at least enough for a 21-16 victory, putting a halt to a three-game losing streak. Hill, meanwhile, was suspended for last week's game and will sit out this week as well.

A&M seemed to have lost its way with those three straight losses, although those did come against Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama, three pretty good teams. The Aggies opened this season with five straight wins, piling up a bunch of yardage and points. If they can just regain a little of that earlier momentum, they could keep this one close.

Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread

At 4-1 in SEC play, the Tigers still think they can win a second straight conference championship. They've got a little work left to do, and they might need a little help, but with two straight wins following the loss to Mississippi State they're still alive. Two weeks ago Auburn beat South Carolina 42-35, and last week it won at Ole Miss 35-31.

The Tigers put up 500 yards of offense on the supposedly stout Rebels defense, including 248 yards on the ground. On the season, Auburn is outrushing foes by 154 yards per game.

Finally, the Tigers have been good bets in this spot recently, going 5-1 ATS in their last six SEC home games and 6-2 ATS over their last eight games as home favorites.

Smart Pick

Auburn is still playing with a chance to make this year's College Football Playoff; Texas A&M isn't really playing for anything. And beating a 3-5 UL-M team by five points doesn't inspire much confidence. So the smart money here resides with the team that's going to win the game, and that's the Tigers.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone under in four of Texas A&M's last five games
• The total has gone under in four of Auburn's last six games

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.