Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes: Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

The Oregon Ducks look to keep their playoff hopes alive when they visit the Utah Utes in a key Pac-12 matchup Saturday.

The Ducks have won four games in a row both straight-up and against the spread since suffering their only defeat of the season at home to Arizona, and they will face a Utah team coming off a tough 19-16 overtime loss at Arizona State last week as a 6.5-point underdog.

Point spread: Ducks opened as 9.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 40.9-28.4 Ducks

Why the Oregon Ducks can cover the spread

Oregon knows there is no margin for error the rest of the season in order to stay in the hunt for the school’s first ever national championship. The Ducks are poised to move into the top four after Ole Miss lost last week, and they certainly need to continue winning in order to stay in that position at the end of the season.

Other teams from major conferences, like Alabama from the SEC and TCU from the Big 12, have big games on tap this week, as well, and they know they cannot afford to lose at this point. Oregon routed Stanford 45-16 last week as a seven-point home favorite and has won all of its games during the winning streak by at least 12 points.

Why the Utah Utes can cover the spread

The Utes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as home underdogs, with the latest cover coming in a 24-21 victory against USC two weeks ago. While the Ducks are a much better team than the Trojans, Utah has shown a unique ability to hang in there and cover against tough opponents. Case in point, last week the team lost by a field goal on the road to the Sun Devils but still beat the 6.5-point spread for its fourth straight cover.

The Utes had not lost since Washington State stunned them 28-27 at Rice-Eccles Stadium as a 13.5-road underdog on September 27. That loss to the Cougars remains Utah’s lone non-cover this season, as the team is an impressive 7-1 ATS on the year.

Smart Pick

Oregon is just 1-3 vs. the line in its last four games as a road favorite and 1-3 ATS in the past four meetings with the Utes, who upset the Ducks 17-13 as three-point home underdogs the last time they hosted them back in 2003. Utah’s defense keeps the team in games, and that’s exactly what will be needed against a high-powered Oregon squad.

The two losses the Utes suffered this season have been decided by a combined four points, which is a big turnaround from last year, when three of their last four setbacks saw them fall by 12 points or more. Utah should be able to stay within double digits here at home against the Ducks, so take the Utes to cover and possibly pull off the upset.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in five of Oregon's last six games on the road
• Utah is 4-1 SU in its last five games at home

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.