Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Odds, Analysis

The only two unbeaten teams in Big Ten Conference play will meet Saturday night in East Lansing as the Michigan State Spartans host the Ohio State Buckeyes. Both teams are riding six-game winning streaks into this rematch of last year’s Big Ten title game, with Michigan State going 4-2 against the spread during that stretch and Ohio State posting a 5-1 mark versus the line.

Point spread: Spartans opened as two-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.4-29.6 Buckeyes

Why the Ohio State Buckeyes can cover the spread

The Buckeyes have won eight of the last 10 meetings with the Spartans, going 6-3-1 ATS in those games. They have scored 50 points or more in five of the six games during their winning streak, covering the spread each time. In a 55-14 rout of Illinois last week, Ohio State rushed for 296 yards and three touchdowns on 44 carries, with four different players picking up more than 40 yards.

The Buckeyes beat the spread easily as 28-point favorites following their lone non-cover over the past two months, which occurred in a 31-24 overtime win against Penn State the week before as 13.5-point favorites. Ohio State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog, covering five in a row as a road dog.

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

Michigan State has won 12 straight home games, going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 at Spartan Stadium. The Spartans will have an extra week to prepare for the Buckeyes following a 35-11 rout of intrastate rival Michigan two weeks ago as 16.5-point favorites. They should also have a mental edge after beating Ohio State in the last meeting, which was a wild back-and-forth affair to determine the conference championship.

Michigan State scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to pull off a 34-24 win over the Buckeyes for the Big Ten title as a 5.5-point underdog and should be able to draw from that experience in playing them again at home.

Smart pick

While the Spartans have a 12-game home winning streak, 10 of those contests had them as double-digit favorites. One of the two games that saw them as single-digit favorites during that stretch came earlier this year in a 27-22 victory against Nebraska. Michigan State closed as an 8.5-point favorite in that game and did not cover the spread.

Six of those games came against non-conference opponents, and the Spartans are just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 home games versus Big Ten foes. Ohio State has won three of its last four games as a road dog, the last coming at Wisconsin last year, 21-14. This game has a similar feel, so look for the Buckeyes to pull off the upset.

Betting trends

• The total has gone over in five of Ohio State's last six games on the road.
• Michigan State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.