College Football Picks: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida State Seminoles Odds

The Virginia Cavaliers are next in line to try to knock off the undefeated Florida State Seminoles this Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium. This ACC clash is set to kick off at 6:30 p.m. (ET), and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

Virginia went into last Saturday’s ACC Coastal Division showdown against Georgia Tech as a 4.5-point road underdog and came up on the wrong end of a 35-10 loss to fall 0-3 both straight up and against the spread in its last three games. The Cavaliers are now 4-5 SU on the year and 5-4 ATS. The total has stayed “under” in their last four games.

Florida State survived yet another scare this season in last Thursday’s 42-31 come-from-behind victory over Louisville as a 3.5-point road favorite. The Seminoles moved to a perfect 8-0 straight up on the year, but it was just the second time this season that they covered against the spread. The total went “over” the closing 51-point line, and it has now gone over in their last four games.

Virginia vs. Florida State Betting Storylines

Virginia’s defense has held up fairly well this season by holding teams to an average of 24.2 points a game, but this number has climbed to 27.7 points during its current slide. The 35 points it just gave up against the Yellow Jackets was just the second time this season the defense surrendered more than 30 points in a game. Georgia Tech scored early and often to build a 21-7 lead in the second quarter from which the Cavaliers never recovered.

The Cavaliers offense has been able to maintain a solid balance with an average of 153.7 yards a game on the ground, complementing a passing game that is averaging 243.9 yards. The net result has been a scoring average of 26.7 points a game. Kevin Parks is the team’s leading rusher with 626 yards and four scores on 150 carries, and the top receiver in the passing game has been Darius Jennings with 421 yards on 20 catches.

Florida State has struggled to live up to its status as one of the top teams in the nation several times this season, but as long as it keeps winning games, it will stay in line for a shot to repeat as national champs. In the back of the mind of every player on this team is the simple fact that the Seminoles will have to get back to the dominating style of play that led to that national title in order to actually get the job done. They might be able to roll through the rest of their conference games, but their current overall form points to a short stay in the postseason.

It all starts with quarterback Jameis Winston. You have to give him credit for still making the plays when his team needs them the most, but 16 touchdown throws against nine interceptions is not the kind of ratio that wins championships. Last season, he tossed 40 scores verses just 10 picks in the Seminoles' run to the top of the heap. Florida State’s defense has also had its issues with stopping some of the better teams it has faced this season, and overall this unit is ranked 42nd in the nation in points allowed (22.8).

Virginia vs. Florida State Betting Odds and Trends by Doc’s Sports

Point Spread: Florida State -20

Total Line: OFF

The betting trends on Covers have Virginia going 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games against a team with a SU winning record but just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The total has stayed under in its last six conference games.

The Seminoles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games but just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a SU win. The total has stayed under in their last five home games.

The last time these two ACC foes met was in 2011, with the Cavaliers stunning Florida State 14-13 as 17-point road underdogs. The Seminoles have won eight of the last 10 meetings SU, and they have a slight 6-4 edge ATS. The total has stayed under in the last nine meetings.

College Football Picks: Virginia vs. Florida State Betting Predictions

Despite the fact that the Seminoles have struggled to cover all season long, I am actually going with Florida State to get its act together this week and play 60 minutes of football. Virginia comes into this matchup a bit shaky in its own right, which sets the stage for a blowout by the home team by more than the current 20-point spread.

Take: No. 166 Florida State (-20) over Virginia—6:30 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 8