New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The New York Jets hope a change at the quarterback position will help them break a seven-game losing streak when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday. The Jets will turn to Michael Vick in Week 8 after going 1-7 straight up and 1-6-1 against the spread with Geno Smith under center, and they have won three straight meetings with the Chiefs.

Point spread: Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.6-16.8 Chiefs

Why the Jets can cover the spread

Sometimes a change at a critical position like quarterback can give a team a boost, and that’s exactly what New York head coach Rex Ryan needs right now in order to help his team break its skid and possibly save his job. Smith has been atrocious in his second season for the Jets, even worse than last year when he threw 21 interceptions as a rookie.

He threw three picks in the first quarter of a 43-23 home loss to the Buffalo Bills last week and Vick did not do much better with an interception and two lost fumbles in the rout. However, Vick has much more experience and will want to impress his former coach Andy Reid, who will be standing on the Kansas City sideline.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs finally seem to be putting it all together at the right time, unlike last year when they got off to a blistering 9-0 start. They have won four of their last five games after losing their first two and are even better ATS with a 5-1 mark vs. the line over their past six. In fact, Kansas City’s only loss during that stretch both SU and ATS came on the road against the San Francisco 49ers 22-17 as 4.5-point underdogs.

In their wins over the last six weeks, the Chiefs have allowed more than 17 points only once, and they have given up a total of three touchdowns in their past two home games combined. They should continue to roll against a turnover-prone New York team at home.

Smart Pick

Some may think Vick is an upgrade for the Jets over Smith, but the only advantage the veteran has over the second-year player is experience. There’s a reason Vick is no longer in Philadelphia, where Reid gave him a second chance at an NFL career. Reid knows all about his strengths and weaknesses, and coaches going against their former quarterbacks have a huge edge against them.

Not to mention Kansas City is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Jets and 4-1 vs. the line in its past five games as a double-digit favorite. This line may seem too high to the same bettors who think Vick can still play, but those who know better will put their money on the Chiefs in this spot.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone over in five of NY Jets' last seven games
• Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last seven games when playing NY Jets

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.