Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals will look to win their second game in a row after going winless in their previous three games at 0-2-1 when they host the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. The Bengals are double-digit favorites for the fifth time since 2007 and have gone 4-0 straight up but 0-4 against the spread in the previous four occurrences.

Point spread: Bengals opened as 13.5-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.5-9.6 Bengals

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jaguars get the opportunity to face Cincinnati off a gruelling divisional win against the Baltimore Ravens last week, setting up for a nice letdown spot here.

Remember last year, Jacksonville was a 26.5-point road underdog against the Denver Broncos and hung tough in a 35-19 loss to easily cover the spread. Denver had played the Dallas Cowboys the previous week and won in a 51-48 shootout, backing up the letdown theory with a specific example of how it impacted the Jaguars.

Even Jacksonville’s lone win this year came against a Cleveland Browns team that had just beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-10 in an AFC North matchup the week before. With a double-digit spread, the Jaguars certainly have a shot to cover, especially against a drained Cincy team.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals improved to 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 home games last week with a 27-24 win over the Ravens and got some of their confidence back in the process. Now they hope to welcome star wide receiver A.J. Green back after missing the last three games with a toe injury.

Whether Green returns or not, Cincinnati still knows what’s at stake here with Pittsburgh facing Baltimore on Sunday night.

The Bengals want to stay atop the AFC North and realize they play in the best division in football. They cannot afford to take any opponent for granted, especially a Jacksonville team that has dropped 25 of its last 30 road games. Cincinnati has a meeting with Cleveland on deck, so it would be best for the home team to get up early and try to coast to a win.

Smart Pick

The Jaguars are still the Jaguars, which means they lose big often and find ways not to cover when they appear to be close to beating the spread. Case in point came in the season opener when they were visiting the Philadelphia Eagles as 10-point road underdogs and jumped out to an early 17-0 halftime lead only to surrender 34 unanswered points in a 34-17 loss.

Jacksonville has failed to cover the last three times as a double-digit dog along with six of the past nine.

While the Bengals have not been playing great lately, do not underestimate their victory against the Ravens. Baltimore was playing as good as anybody in the NFL heading into that matchup, and Cincinnati emerged victorious.

The Bengals have won the last two meetings with the Jaguars by an average of nearly two touchdowns and should win by a similar margin again here.

Betting Trends

• Jacksonville is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games
• Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last six games when playing at home against Jacksonville

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.