Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cleveland Browns: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

NFL oddsmakers seem to have a good read on the Cleveland Browns; five of their seven games this season have ended within a field goal of the spread, including a pair of point-spread pushes. Cleveland (4-3) will be a touchdown favorite when it hosts the (1-6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Browns opened as six-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.7-9.3 Browns

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Bucs come in on a three-game losing streak, but two of those losses came in overtime. Three weeks ago, Tampa Bay took the Saints to overtime at the Superdome before falling, 37-31. And last week, the Bucs lost at home to Minnesota in overtime 19-13 on a Vikings fumble return for a score. Tampa Bay also owns one-score losses this season to Carolina and St. Louis.

With a little luck, the Bucs could be within a game of .500. Tampa Bay is still going through a learning curve with new head coach Lovie Smith; perhaps progress can be made during the second half of this season.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns bounced back from that uninspiring loss at Jacksonville to beat Oakland last week, 23-13, covering as seven-point favorites. Cleveland only managed 39 yards on the ground, but quarterback Brian Hoyer hit on 19 of 28 passes for 275 yards and a touchdown, without an interception. The defense held the Raiders out of the end zone until just seven seconds remained in the game.

So the Browns are now 7-3 straight up (SU) and 7-1-2 against the spread (ATS) in games Hoyer has started. Statistically speaking, Cleveland ranks 12th in total offense, just 29th in total defense but fourth in turnover margin at plus-seven.

Smart Pick

Tampa Bay, at best, is a work in progress, while Cleveland has something to play for right now, as it sits just a half-game out of first place in the AFC North. And the Browns, for whatever reason, just seem to play with a spark with Hoyer. So the smart choice in this spot is to give the points with Cleveland.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last six games on the road.
• Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last six games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.