St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The San Francisco 49ers are 15-0-1 straight up in their last 16 NFC West home games, and the St. Louis Rams are 2-16-1 SU in their last 19 NFC West road games. Longtime rivals meet for the 131st time when the 4-3 'Niners host the 2-5 Rams Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara.

Point spread: The 49ers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.8-15.4 49ers

Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Rams may only be 2-5 both SU and against the spread this season, but they've had some chances. Six weeks ago they led Dallas 21-0 but lost 34-31. Just after that, they rallied to get within one score of Philadelphia and advanced the ball to midfield on their last drive but lost 34-28. And following that game, they led these 49ers 14-0 before losing 31-17.

Also, don't forget that just a couple weeks ago St. Louis upset defending Super Bowl champion Seattle 28-26. The Rams then suffered an all-too-predictable letdown last week against Kansas City, but they have shown they can play with some good teams.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The Niners had a three-game winning streak (3-0 ATS) snapped two weeks ago in a 42-17 loss at Denver, then they had last week off. Frisco just didn't have an answer for Peyton Manning and company, but few teams do. Before that, the 49ers had rallied to beat Philly, won a tough game over Kansas City and rallied to beat these Rams 31-17.

San Francisco spotted St. Louis the first 14 points of the game, then outscored the Rams from there 31-3, preserving the victory and the cover with an interception return for a touchdown in the last minute of the game. The 49ers outgained St. Louis that night 452-309.

Smart pick

So far this season, San Francisco has outrushed opponents by 40 yards per game, while St. Louis has been outrushed by 43 yards per game. And teams that have outrushed their opponents this season are 80-42 SU and 81-38 ATS. So the smart money in this spot goes on the 49ers, minus the points.

Betting trends

• St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games on the road.
• San Francisco is 5-0-1 SU in its last six games when playing at home against St. Louis.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.