Indianapolis Colts vs. NY Giants: Breaking Down New York's Game Plan

The NFL is a funny sport.

Think about it for a few seconds. Every team gets just 16 regular-season games to show off to the world the results of the blood, sweat and tears that are shed during the other 349 days of the year that are spent planning, plotting and hoping for the best.

So when a team—yes, we’re looking at you, you 3-4 New York Giants—comes out of the gate slowly, it’s not only a cause for concern, but it’s also a source of frustration to the thousands of fans who sacrifice half of their weekend to watch their favorite team.

Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is well-aware of all this, which is why his primary message to his team upon its return from its annual bye week was to make these last nine games count—starting with its Monday night home game against the Indianapolis Colts. 

“We’ve got nine games to play as well as we can possibly play,” Coughlin told reporters following the team’s Monday practice in which he was spotted delivering an impassioned speech to the players huddled around him.

“I think anybody in that locker room can do that. They just have to realize the amount of the season and the schedule that’s gone by, and that we have nine opportunities.”

Certainly, the Giants, currently sitting in third place in the NFC East after suffering two very bad losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys respectively, can’t go back in time to erase the putrid showings they have already put on film.

What they can do, however, is look to build on the good that has emerged from the various disappointments and be competitive in their quest to make a late-season run toward a postseason berth.

Coughlin and his players believe they have the pieces to the puzzle—yes, even despite the injuries that, this week, finally claimed starting middle linebacker Jon Beason and could end up keeping cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins and running back Rashad Jennings off the field.

“It’s your job to panic and you guys do that very well,” defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka told reporters on Monday. “For us, there’s parity in the league. You can talk about all of those things, injuries or whatever.

“The fact remains that we have a lot of games left on the schedule. We’ve got championship-caliber talent in here, I still believe that 100 percent, so we go out, we work, we put wins together and all of a sudden the perception changes.”

That the Giants are openly expressing confidence is not a surprise—anyone who expects them to publicly put down their talent is probably unfamiliar with the inner dynamics of a sports locker room.

However, as Coughlin likes to remind people, “Talk is cheap.”

The fact is that the next four games, which general manager Jerry Reese, in his press conference with reporters, referred to as “murderers' row,” are going to tell us a lot about this Giants team and the caliber of talent it really has.

Carpe diem, Giants!

The Series

This is the 15th regular-season meeting between the Giants and the Colts. Indianapolis leads the series 8-6. New York is 3-6 against the Colts in games played in its home stadium. 

Unit	Colts	Giants
Quarterback	X
Running Backs	X
Tight Ends	X
Receivers	X
Offensive Line	X
Defensive Line	X
Linebackers		X
Defensive Secondary	X
Special Teams		X

The Game Plan

Giants on Offense

The Giants are unlikely to have Rashad Jennings (knee) for Monday night’s game, which means that the bulk of the duty will once again fall on the shoulders of rookie Andre Williams.

Gulp!

It’s not that Williams is a bad player—the rookie out of Boston College has shown flashes of being a future superstar.

However, as noted in this breakdown of Williams’ performance so far, his inexperience and struggles with the speed of the game have typically translated to him leaving a lot of yardage on the field, contributing to some of the long-yardage situations that have plagued the Giants this year.

The Colts run defense is currently allowing opponents an average of 99.2 yards per game, ninth in the NFL.

The Giants' run blocking, meanwhile, has not been very good, especially in the last two games, where the team rushed for 85 and 104 yards respectively, an average of 94.5 yards on the ground.

Uh oh!

If the Giants are to have any chance of winning the game, they need to find a way to run the ball. It’s no coincidence that in their four losses this season, the Giants have had their four-lowest rushing totals. 

In fact, with the exception of the Dallas game in which they ran for 104 yards and still lost, the Giants had been 3-0 when rushing for more than 100 yards in a game this season.

The Giants could catch a break in the passing game this week if Colts cornerback Vontae Davis (knee) can’t play.

Davis, the Colts’ top cornerback, is tied for the team lead with two interceptions and has an NFL rating of 37.8, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), putting him just behind the Denver Broncos’ Chris Harris Jr. on PFF’s top cornerbacks based on having taken 60 percent or more of the team’s snaps.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

What makes Davis so good is his ability to close in on a receiver and then position his tackles to knock the ball loose, which is what he does in this frame against Houston Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins. 

Davis’ textbook tackling and coverage, combined with that speed, are big reasons why he has allowed just 15 (out of 33) targets to be completed, per PFF, and why the 48 yards after the catch he’s allowed puts him behind Harris, who has allowed 47 yards after the catch.

Fortunately for the Giants’ offensive line its pass blocking has been good. It also helps that the Colts’ passing defense is also allowing opponents 252.9 passing yards per game, 21st in the NFL.

The Colts are very solid in applying press coverage, something the Giants receivers have struggled with in the past.

They also are a top-10 team in terms of sacks, with their 21.0 sacks putting them in a four-way tie for ninth in the NFL.

Regardless if Davis is in the lineup, look for the Colts to get their hands on the Giants receiving corps to disrupt its timing.

If so, look for the tight ends, Larry Donnell and Daniel Fells, to try to take advantage of the underneath stuff against the Colts linebackers, none of whom—from a group that usually includes Bjoern Werner and Erik Walden on the outside and D’Qwell Jackson and Jerrell Freeman on the inside—has an NFL rating of less than 100.0 in coverage.

Giants on Defense

The Giants run defense has been gouged in the last two games to the tune of 359 yards.

To put that total in perspective, in its first five games New York allowed just 495 rushing yards to opponents. 

This next week, the Giants, who have already lost middle linebacker Jon Beason (toe) for the season, will also be without defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins (calf).

Given that opponents have realized that the Giants are having trouble protecting the edges, New York could be in for a long night if the Colts running game gets started.

Let’s look at two key elements of that running game.

The first obviously is running back Ahmad Bradshaw, currently the Colts’ rushing-yardage leader with 371 yards on 76 carries.

Bradshaw, of course, is the former Giant with whom the team cut ties after the 2012 season when the 2007 seventh-round draft pick’s injury history made what Spotrac (subscription required) reported was a $5.25 million salary-cap figure in 2013 too much to carry.

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

After having neck surgery last year, Bradshaw looks as though he has found the Fountain of Youth.

He is to the Colts what Rashad Jennings is to the Giants: a complete back who can run, receive and pass block.

“Coming off a pretty serious surgery and dealing with what he had to deal with and the level that he is playing at right now, it didn’t surprise any of us…to know that if anybody can come back and play at the level that he is playing at right now,” Colts head coach Chuck Pagano told reporters via conference call.

“He is a competitive son of a gun. He is running the ball well, he is great on third down, he’s great out of the backfield, [he’s] catching the ball—he is doing a lot of stuff for us.”

When defending Bradshaw, it’s important to exercise patience because very seldom does he run to the spot where it initially looks like he is supposed to be headed.

That’s what the Cincinnati Bengals learned in the second quarter on a 15-yard gain by Bradshaw.

He takes the handoff and starts to follow his fullback to the left side of the formation. The Bengals’ outside linebacker (black arrow) starts to follow what appears to be the flow of the play, running inside to position himself to meet Bradshaw in the hole.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

The problem is that as Bradshaw has done so many times before in his career, he cuts back against the grain and darts around the right edge for his 15-yard pickup.

Meanwhile, the linebacker, who was a little too anxious to run to where he thought Bradshaw would be, ended up being caught up in the wash in the play, leaving the safety to have to tackle Bradshaw, who by then is well into the second level.

The second element of the Colts running game is third-year tight end Dwayne Allen, who missed 15 games last year thanks to a hip injury. 

“It is obviously good to have Dwayne Allen back; I sure missed him a year ago,” Pagano said.

“Playing at a high level, you get your stud tight end, wide tight end back. It makes a huge impact in the run game, and from a pass game standpoint, he is much like the two tight ends we’re going to face that creates some mismatch problems for you in the back end.”

Don Wright/Associated Press

While the stat sheet will only reflect Allen’s contributions in the passing game only, of which he has 22 receptions for 326 yards and six touchdowns, his run blocking has been nothing short of phenomenal.

Allen is PFF’s third-best run-blocking tight end, behind the Dallas Cowboys’ Jason Witten and Tennessee Titans' Delanie Walker.

The former Clemson star’s performance is a big reason why Ahmad Bradshaw is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, tying him for fourth in the NFL among running backs who have taken at least 60 percent of their team’s snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.

One of the things Allen does well, besides get the proper pad level to latch on to his man, is that he keeps his feet moving. That allows him to drive the defender well out of harm’s way, such as on this six-yard second-quarter run against the Bengals earlier this year by Trent Richardson.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Note how Allen has latched on to safety George Iloka, who has come up into the box to provide run support on what appears to be a disguised blitz. 

Allen drives Iloka toward the sideline to create a gaping hole on the left side of the formation through which Richardson probably could have driven his luxury sports car had he had it with him on the field.

Finally, one quick thought regarding a concerning matchup between the Giants pass defense and the Colts' passing game.

If Reggie Wayne (elbow) isn’t ready to play—Pagano, via the Colts’ official website, classified Wayne as being ahead of schedule and as “day to day”—receiver T. Y. Hilton will likely line up in the slot.

Regardless of who the slot receiver is for the Colts, he would presumably match up against Giants slot cornerback Jayron Hosley. Hosley—who, per PFF, has an 88.2 NFL rating—is the Giants’ third slot cornerback this season thanks to injuries.

As Hosley versus either Hilton or Wayne isn’t exactly a matchup made in heaven, don’t be surprised if the Giants instead deploy a lot of their three-safety look to not only help against the run, but to also give them a little better chance of success.

The Luck Factor

We normally don’t single out a specific player in our previews, but Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, who is probably the most complete quarterback the Giants are going to face all season, warrants an exception this week.

There is very little that Luck can’t do, be it the short, touch pass, the deep ball or moving around the pocket for positive yards.

He isn’t easily rattled, he has a short memory and he’s simply a one-man wrecking machine who has a host of weapons at his disposal, which we’ll discuss in just a minute.

According to Pro Football Focus, the third-year pro has made his living by throwing passes under 20 yards, where the league’s passing-yardage leader has completed 161 of 235 pass attempts (68.5 percent) for 1,812 yards, 15 touchdowns and only seven interceptions for a 100.1 quarterback rating.

Luck runs an offense that, as Mark Kaboly of TribLIVE.com points out, throws the ball out of run formations and runs the ball out of passing formations. These multiple looks are designed to keep defenses on their heels.

Perhaps the biggest challenge for a defense when playing against Luck is his fine mobility. To date, Luck has been sacked only 13 times, with Houston and Denver each posting three-sack games against the quarterback.

First, let’s look at how Luck buys time with his feet.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

On this play, the left side of Luck’s pocket is starting to cave in. The quarterback, recognizing there is a hole where his offensive lineman had been battling the defender, takes a few steps up into that vacant spot and then connects with tight end Dwayne Allen for a 15-yard gain. 

So how does one bring Luck to the ground?

The answer, as simple as it might be, is for the defender to keep him from slipping by.

That’s what Houston’s J.J. Watt, who had 2.0 sacks against Luck, did on this play, a sack for minus-two yards.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Watt exercised patience in waiting to see what Luck would do instead of biting on the play action.

As Luck started to roll out, Watt mirrored him, literally stride for stride.

While Luck did manage to get by Watt at the last moment, because Watt had a close enough angle, he was able to trip the quarterback up for the two-yard loss. 

Giants	Colts
CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (back/hamstring)	CB Vontae Davis (knee)
RB Rashad Jennings (foot)	RB Trent Richardson (hamstring)
DT Cullen Jenkins (calf)	OLB Erik Walden (hip flexor)
P Steve Weatherford (ankle)	WR Reggie Wayne (elbow)

Prediction

On paper, the chances of the Giants—who, by the way, will be wearing their white pants from the days when the word “Giants” was emblazoned on the side of their helmets—winning this game aren’t very good.

There aren’t many favorable matchups. The Giants’ injury situation is concerning, especially at cornerback if Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie can’t go.

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

The Giants running game hasn’t given us much hope in the last two games, and it will go against a staunch run defense.

Did we mention that the Colts offense is as loaded as a St. Elmo Steak House baked potato?

With that said, football is all about any given Sunday.

Who would have thought, for instance, that last week’s 34-point effort by the Colts wouldn’t be enough to win them their game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who just happened to best them thanks to a 51-point effort?

The point is that the Colts have a lot of firepower, and even though they suffered a blowout loss, the game just didn’t seem to be as big of a blowout as the score indicated.

With that all said, the Giants will have a better showing this week, which will be important because it will allow them to see how they stack up against one of the NFL’s truly better teams.

However, the game’s outcome, which will be decided after the Giants hold a halftime ceremony during which they will present the Hall of Fame ring to former defensive end Michael Strahan, will probably leave a lot of Big Blue fans really feeling the team’s colors on Tuesday morning.

Colts 30, Giants 17; 2014 win-loss prediction record: 4-3

Advanced statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required) unless otherwise noted.

All quotes and information obtained firsthand unless otherwise sourced. Follow me on Twitter @Patricia_Traina.