Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Peyton Manning owns five NFL MVP awards, but Tom Brady has three Super Bowl rings and a 10-5 straight up record (9-6 against the spread) against his quarterbacking archrival. Manning and Brady meet up once again when the 6-1 Broncos and 6-2 Patriots play a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Broncos opened as four-point favorites; the total was 55.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.8-32.0 Patriots

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Since falling at Seattle in overtime six weeks ago, the Broncos are 4-0 both SU and ATS after their 35-21 victory over San Diego last Thursday. Denver outgained the Chargers 425-306, outrushed the Bolts 139-61 and picked off Philip Rivers twice, all in covering as nine-point home chalk.

The Broncos rank sixth in the league in total offense, fourth in total defense and first against the run, holding foes to just 72 yards per game on the ground. Some of that last stat, though, can be attributed to the Denver offense, which almost always provides the team a lead to defend. Finally, the Broncos just beat the Patriots last January 26-16 in the AFC title game, outgaining New England 507-320 and covering as five-point favorites.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

A few weeks ago, following poor performances against the Raiders and Chiefs, the buzz was that the Bill Belichick-Brady Patriots might be done contending for conference titles. Since then, New England is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS after crushing Chicago last week 51-23. The Patriots led 38-7 at the half and coasted from there, eventually racking up 487 yards of offense.

Brady threw the same number of touchdown passes as incompletions (five), and little-used running back Jonas Gray ran for 86 yards on 17 carries. On the season, New England ranks 10th in total offense and 12th in total defense.

Smart pick

Denver is not just all Manning. With Ronnie Hillman filling in nicely for the injured Montee Ball at running back, the Broncos have outrushed opponents this season by 29 yards per game. Meanwhile, New England has been outrushed by 24 yards per game. So far this NFL season, teams that have outrushed their opponents are 80-42 SU and 81-38 ATS. So the smart choice in this spot is Denver.

Betting trends

• Denver is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing New England.
• New England is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games at home.

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