Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals Betting Odds and Pick

Florida State might be undefeated and headed for the College Football Playoff, but as heavy betting favorites almost every time out, the Seminoles are also only 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games. Florida State will be a solid favorite again when it takes on Louisville in the teams' first meeting as ACC foes Thursday night at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.

Point spread: Seminoles opened as 8.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.3-25.2 Seminoles

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

Following the victory over Notre Dame two weeks ago, the Seminoles have now won 23 games in a row, going 13-9-1 ATS. Florida State didn't have its top game against the Irish, but it made the plays when it needed to, getting two Jameis Winston touchdown passes and two Karlos Williams touchdown runs.

The phantom offensive pass interference call against Notre Dame at the end of the game didn't hurt, either. Florida State only ranks 47th in the country in total offense and 53rd in total defense but 19th in scoring at 38 points per game and 29th in points allowed at 22 per game.

Why the Louisville Cardinals can cover the spread

The Cardinals have won three of their last four games, and covered three of their last five, after beating North Carolina State two weeks ago 30-18. Louisville got 173 yards on the ground from running back Michael Dyer and two touchdown passes from quarterback Will Gardner, who now owns an 11-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season.

And the Cardinals defense held the Wolf Pack to just 128 yards rushing. Louisville ranks 94th in total offense but leads the nation in both total defense, allowing 245 yards per game, and against the run, giving up 69 yards per game. The most points the Cardinals have allowed this season was the 23 both Virginia and Clemson scored.

Smart pick

Florida State has not looked like the team it was last year, but the 'Noles are still a dangerous bunch. If this game were being played in Tallahassee, the Seminoles might be favored by as much as two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Louisville is only 1-7 ATS the last eight times it's been lined as a home dog. So the smart choice here is with the visiting Seminoles, minus the points.

Betting Trends

• Florida State is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games on the road.
• The total has gone under in five of Louisville's last seven games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.