NFL Predictions Week 9: Early Odds, Picks and Projections for Upcoming Schedule

If the first half of the NFL season is about identifying each team's relative strength, then the second half is when we can begin to differentiate between closely grouped squads.  Week 9 marks the midway point of the season, and although teams are beginning to separate into distinct tiers, there is still enough time for significant mobility up or down the standings.

A preliminary glance at the Week 9 slate suggests that there are more heavy favorites than usual, but as teams like Washington and the New Orleans Saints demonstrated last week, teams can still exhibit drastic changes in form.

Taking an early look at the lines via Odds Shark, let's project every game on the Week 9 slate and highlight some particularly interesting lines for the upcoming week.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers	CAR -1	Saints
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys	DAL -4	Cardinals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns	CLE -7	Buccaneers
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings	WAS -1	Vikings
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -12.5	Bengals
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins	Even	Chargers
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs	KC -10.5	Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans	PHI -1	Eagles
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers	SF -10.5	49ers
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks	SEA -16.5	Seahawks
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots	DEN -3	Patriots
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers	Even	Steelers
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants	IND -3	Colts

Saints (+1) over Panthers

Coming off a convincing Sunday night victory over the rolling Green Bay Packers, the New Orleans Saints look like favorites to reclaim control of the slipshod NFC South.  However, skeptics might suggest that the short turnaround would exacerbate New Orleans' road woes, thus making them deserved underdogs.

In fairness, the Sean Payton-era Saints have not exhibited inexplicable home-road splits until the past two seasons.  New Orleans' 3-9 regular-season road record ranks 23rd in terms of winning percentage in that time span, but just three of those losses have been by more than one possession, per Pro Football Reference.  It seems clear that the Saints have been unfortunate not to accrue more victories away from the Superdome.

Moreover, the Panthers appear ill-equipped to exploit the Saints' defensive issues on the perimeter.  Tight end Greg Olsen is Carolina's most consistent weapon, but New Orleans, behind their deep safety corps, ranks 12th in defending tight ends, based on Football Outsiders' DVOA.  Conversely, the Saints' own All-Pro tight end is finally returning to health:

With Drew Brees and the offense establishing a more consistent rhythm, New Orleans can overcome a disappointing defense, at least against a caliber of team like Carolina.  Although the Saints have experienced several high-profile prime-time road losses in recent seasons, expect them to rebound and move to the top of the division for the first time this season.  

49ers (-10.5) over Rams

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It is often bad business to lay the points with a double-digit favorite, but in this instance, it is difficult to envision the St. Louis Rams hanging close at Levi's Stadium.  A 27-point debacle of a loss last week was already discouraging, but more concerning is the fact that the Rams' offensive starting lineup essentially disintegrated at Arrowhead Stadium:

The San Francisco 49ers, though depleted by defensive depth issues, are coming off a bye week that should provide valuable recovery for starters like Patrick Willis, Mike Iupati, Tramaine Brock and Chris Culliver.  For the purposes of this matchup, the Niners should be able to generate plenty of pressure on green starter Austin Davis, who will be without up to three offensive line starters due to injuries.

According to TeamRankings.com, the Rams have conceded sacks on a whopping 8.6 percent of their dropbacks, third-worst in the league.  Although the 49ers pass rush has been inconsistent without All-Pro outside linebacker Aldon Smith, expect the likes of Ahmad Brooks, Justin Smith and Aaron Lynch to exploit the ravaged St. Louis line.

If turnovers and quick three-and-outs result from that defensive pressure, it is not difficult to envision the 49ers busting this game open.  Unless the Rams play their best defensive game of the season, San Francisco should win handily to move to 4-2.

Patriots (+3) over Broncos

The week's premier matchup sees the New England Patriots as rare home underdogs.  Over the past 10 seasons, the Pats have been underdogs at Gillette Stadium just three times, per Pro-Football-Reference.  Even with the Denver Broncos on an incandescent offensive hot streak, the numbers suggest an extremely daunting task for Peyton Manning and Co.:

While Denver did stymie the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, New England memorably erased a 24-0 halftime deficit last year to take the regular-season meeting.  With Rob Gronkowski back at full strength, Tom Brady has repudiated premature convictions about his demise, leading the Patriots to a league-leading 38.3 points per game over the past three weeks.

Defensively, New England also possesses the rare defensive personnel to combat Denver's plethora of options in the passing game.  In Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Patriots employ a pair of physical press man-coverage corners capable of disrupting the rhythmic man-coverage-beating concepts the Broncos rely upon.  Against the towering Brandon Marshall-Alshon Jeffery duo last week, the Pats conceded a combined total of eight catches for 94 yards to the two Pro Bowlers.

Thus, expect the Pats to attempt to exploit the seams offensively behind Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell, while limiting Manning's ability to pick up easy yardage over the middle of the field on screens and crossing routes.  Brady-Manning contests are nearly always tightly contested, so it seems reasonable to expect the Patriots to overcome the odds and defeat Denver for the third time in four tries during the Manning era.