The Track Too Tough to Tame for Fantasy Picks

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Kevin Harvick was - by all statistical evidence - the right pick for last weeks Sprint Cup race at Richmond International Raceway. It didn’t work out.  Picking winners in NASCAR racing often doesn’t. You can begin to doubt the viability of the stats.

But the drivers who rated right behind Harvick for RIR were two of the most dominant and - as it turned out - controversial guys in the event.

Denny Hamlin led 381 of the 400 race laps but finished 24th - due to a tire going down under green and his attempt to draw a caution. The controversial part came of that try for a yellow flag.

Kyle Busch finished second. He got there by - some say - driving through Dale Earnhardt Jr while going for the win. There has been plenty of hash and re-hash on that subject.

Harvick had a dominant position in the NASCAR Loop stats for RIR. The spread between drivers at Darlington Raceway is tighter and there are only three races in the Loop database for the Lady in Black.

Fantasy Picks for the Track too Tough to Tame

Some weeks ago, Steve and I interviewed several of the NASCAR internet community’s most knowledgeable writers for our first 7 Post Podcast.  We asked each of our guests who their pick would be for Darlington in May.  Most chose Greg Biffle.  Goodyear had just completed the spring tire test at the South Carolina track.  The news that Biffle had topped 200 mph on the back stretch was big.  Maybe that was an influence on the picks.  Or perhaps those blogger folks are pretty smart too.

Gregg Biffle has the top Driver Rating of 126.1. He is the top dog in Fastest Laps with 141 and Laps Led at 346 or 31.3% of the last three races at Darlington. Greg has the second most Laps in the Top Fifteen the third best Ave Running Position of 5.2. Top those numbers with three top tens and two wins and The Biff looks good this week.

Jimmy Johnson looks good every week, doesn’t he? Second best Driver Rating, Fastest Laps, Laps Led and the top Ave Finish of 2.3 make it so again. JJ has two top fives and eight top tens.

Hamlin has only raced twice in Loop races at the Lady. He has the third best DR of 119.2 in those two and two top fives and four top tens all together. Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Busch has only one top ten ever and a Driver Rating of 85.7 which is 13th.

Darlington has been good to Ryan Newman. Ryan is fourth in DR with 116.4 and number one in Ave Running Position of 4.951. Five top fives and six top tens show his consistency at this track.

Jeff Gordon has gained more total Loop Points per Darlington race than anyone else - 540 compared to Biffle’s 498 - and has the best Ave Finish - 1.7 - and Laps in the Top Fifteen - 1091 for 98.8%. Gordon is also a seven time winner here. Yikes!

Earnhardt Jr, Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne all have similar DR’s - 99.6, 98.8 and 97.8 respectively. None of the three has ever won at Darlington. The only Loop stat that jumps out is that Junior has zero Laps Led.

I’m going with Jeff Gordon as my fantasy pick. That Ave Finish stat of 1.7 and his top Ave Points Gained combined with his history at the track and the fact that he is, well, Jeff Freakin’ Gordon finish the self-argument for me.

If you want a driver outside the Loop stat top ten, take Jeff Burton.Steady Jeff has two wins, eight top fives and fourteen top tens at Darlington to support his 2008 success.

My dark-horse pick is Bobby Labonte - hopefully in that Speed Racer-painted #43 again.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.