St. Louis Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The St. Louis Rams just snapped three-game straight-up and against-the-spread losing streaks with a shocking upset of the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.

St. Louis will now try to avoid a letdown game when it travels across the state to take on the 3-3 Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday afternoon.

If it seems like a long time since the Rams won as road dogs of seven points or more, that's because it has only happened twice in their past 28 games in this situation.

Point spread: Chiefs opened as six-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.1-18.1 Chiefs

Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Rams just beat the vaunted Seahawks 28-26; why wouldn't they be able to handle the Chiefs? St. Louis played like a team with nothing to lose last week, pulling off an ingenious misdirection punt return for a touchdown, then later icing the game by converting a fake punt into a first down.

The Rams also got an 18-of-21 passing performance from replacement quarterback Austin Davis, who's now thrown six touchdown passes against one interception over his last three games.

St. Louis is only 2-4 both SU and ATS this season, but over its last five games, it has beaten Tampa Bay and Seattle, lost by a field goal to Dallas and by a touchdown at Philadelphia and gave San Francisco a tough game.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs are coming off a 23-20 victory over division rival San Diego, winning straight up as three-point road dogs. Kansas City outgained the Chargers 365-251, outrushed them 154-69 and won the time-of-possession battle by a lopsided 39-21 margin. That's how you win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Running back Jamaal Charles had his best day of the season, rushing for 95 yards, and the Chiefs defense, which ranks 10th in the league overall, held San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers to his least productive game of the season. So Kansas City is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS over its last five games.

Smart pick

St. Louis may have pulled off an upset last week on the scoreboard, but the Rams actually got outgained by Seattle by 191 yards. St. Louis has also been outrushed in five of six games this season.

Kansas City, on the other hand, has outgained and outrushed four of six foes this season. So considering that teams that have outrushed their opponents this NFL season are 73-31 ATS, the smart money here should go with the Chiefs, minus the points.

Betting trends

• St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last five games on the road.
• Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing St. Louis.
• Rams have only won twice in 28 games when getting seven points or more on the road (2-25-1 SU).

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