Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Minnesota Vikings used to play twice a season as members of the NFC Central. Since the breakup of that division, the teams have met sparingly, but Tampa Bay has managed to build a six-game winning streak against Minnesota, going 6-0 against the spread (ATS), most recently beating the Vikes 36-17 two years ago in Minneapolis. The former division rivals renew acquaintances Sunday in Tampa.

Point spread: The Buccaneers opened as two-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 18.6-11.8 Vikings

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings are coming off a tough 17-16 loss at Buffalo but a cover as six-point road dogs. Minnesota led for most of the fourth quarter but gave up a game-winning drive in the final three minutes, capped by a Kyle Orton touchdown pass with one second remaining on the clock. The Vikes might have won that game had they not given up 24 yards on a 4th-and-20 with a minute and a half to go.

Minnesota outrushed the Bills 158-118, won the time of possession by a 32-28 margin and forced four turnovers, all of which was enough to cover. Even without Adrian Peterson, the Vikings rank 10th in the league in rushing at 125 yards per game, and the defense ranks a respectable 13th overall, holding four of seven opponents to 20 points or less.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Bucs fell victim to a hot Baltimore team two weeks ago, falling 48-17. Then, they had last week off. Just prior to that, Tampa took New Orleans to overtime in the Superdome before losing 37-31, and just before that, the Bucs rallied to stun the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 27-24.

So Tampa is 2-1 ATS over its last three games. Not much has gone right for the Bucs in their first season under new head coach Lovie Smith, but new regimes bring new systems and involve learning curves. Tampa should improve during the second half of this season.

Smart Pick

The smartest money on this game might be the cash bettors keep in their pockets, rather than placing it on either of these two teams. By the numbers, Minnesota runs the ball better than Tampa, and it has the edge on defense. So the smart pick in this spot is with the Vikings, plus the points.

Betting trends

• The total has gone over in five of Minnesota's last six games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay.
• Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing Minnesota.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.