Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Jacksonville Jaguars just picked up their first victory of the season, an upset of Cleveland, and have covered the spread in their last two games. With a little luck the Jags could be better than their 2-5 against-the-spread record might indicate. Jacksonville will try to begin a winning streak when it hosts the 3-3 Miami Dolphins Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Dolphins opened as four-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 20.1-9.7 Dolphins

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins are coming off a solid 27-14 victory at Chicago last week, winning outright as three-point road dogs. Miami led from the outset, eventually outgaining the Bears 393-224, outrushing them 137-52 and winning time of possession by a 37-23 margin. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw just seven incompletions in 32 attempts and ran for 48 yards.

So the Dolphins are now 2-1 both straight up and ATS on the road this season. Statistically speaking, Miami ranks 12th in total offense, fourth in rushing, fourth in total defense and 10th against the run. Numbers like that are more indicative of a winning team, rather than one that's struggled just to play .500 ball.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags just beat the Browns 24-6, winning straight up as four-point home dogs. Jacksonville outrushed Cleveland 185-69, as second-year running back Denard Robinson, the former Michigan quarterback, had his best day as a pro, running for 127 yards and a touchdown. And the Jaguars defense harassed Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer into a 16-for-41 passing performance.

Jacksonville has now outgained and outrushed its last two opponents; not coincidentally, it's 2-0 ATS the last two weeks. The Jags only rank 31st in total offense and 28th in total defense, but that defense has also allowed a total of 39 points over the last three games.

Smart Pick

Miami is outrushing foes this season by 36 yards per game, while Jacksonville is getting outrushed by 24 yards per game. And so far this NFL season, teams that have won the battle of the ground games are 72-35 SU and 73-31 ATS. So the smart money here resides with the Dolphins, minus the points.

Betting trends

• The total has gone UNDER in four of Miami's last six games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Jacksonville's last 15 games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.