Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New Orleans Saints will be desperate for a win when they host the Green Bay Packers in the Week 8 Sunday Night Football matchup. The Saints are off to a disappointing 2-4 start but hope to get back on track against a Green Bay team that is just 1-9 against the spread in its last 10 road games before a bye week.

Point spread: Saints opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 55 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.1-25.9 Packers

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers are sitting pretty atop the NFC North, tied with the Detroit Lions for the division lead. They hope to enter their bye on a five-game winning streak but know winning at New Orleans will not be an easy task.

Green Bay lost its first two road games against the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions but has won its past two against the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins to build some confidence playing away from home. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has also been great during the winning streak, completing nearly 71 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans may be struggling but still resides in a division where a .500 mark puts you in first place. The Saints are chasing the defending NFC South champion Carolina Panthers in the standings and should have won last week against the Lions off their bye week but still played well enough to cover the spread.

They are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against NFC North opponents and are 23-5-1 vs. the line in their past 29 games as favorites at the Superdome. New Orleans is simply too good to lose this many games less than halfway through the season and should rebound here at home.

Smart Pick

Whether you choose to fade the road team Green Bay or back the home team New Orleans in this spot, all of the key betting trends seem to lead to picking the Saints. The Packers just have too many negatives going against them outside of their recent play, including dropping seven of their last eight games both straight up and ATS as road underdogs.

New Orleans has been an outstanding home team over the years and has also covered three of the last four meetings with Green Bay. That combination will likely be too much for the Packers to overcome, especially since they are the latest NFC team all the so-called experts believe will go to the Super Bowl. Fade the public and the Pack.

Betting trends

• Green Bay is 6-3 SU in its last nine games when playing New Orleans
• New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last six games when playing Green Bay

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.