Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

First place in the AFC North will be on the line Sunday in Cincinnati when the Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens in a key divisional matchup. The Bengals have gone 0-2-1 in their last three games since starting the season 3-0, but they are 9-2 against the spread in their past 11 games as home favorites, while the Ravens are 3-7-1 ATS in their previous 11 meetings.

Point spread: Bengals opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.5-23.7 Ravens

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

It’s hard to imagine Baltimore playing much better than the team is right now with consecutive dominant wins against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons by a combined score of 77-24. The Ravens covered both of those games, and they know how important this matchup is considering the AFC North race and the fact that they lost their season opener at home to Cincinnati.

Baltimore won its next two divisional games following that 23-16 loss to the Bengals and appears to have moved on past the Ray Rice controversy that clouded the team early in the year. In fact, the only loss for the Ravens over their past six games came on the road in Week 5 against an Indianapolis Colts team that has won five in a row.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincinnati has obviously not played well lately, with a tie in the team’s last home game and a shutout loss in the last road game. But the Bengals were the team everybody was talking about as the best team in the NFL through the first three weeks of the season.

That chatter stopped after a 43-17 road loss to the New England Patriots in Week 5 following their bye week. They just need to find a way to get back on track and should have plenty of motivation taking on a Baltimore team currently leading the AFC North.

Cincinnati has gone 4-0 straight up and ATS in its last four home games against divisional opponents and will be primed for a rebound win here.

Smart Pick

The Bengals begin an important three-game stretch at home that starts and finishes against divisional foes. They hope to get wide receiver A.J. Green back from a toe injury, which would be a huge boost to the team’s offense and give quarterback Andy Dalton his top weapon back. With Green out the last two games, Cincinnati has been a bit limited even though the team still scored 37 points in the tie with the Carolina Panthers two weeks ago.

Last week’s 27-0 road loss to the Indianapolis Colts combined with playing an AFC North opponent should be all that’s needed to motivate the Bengals, so look for them to cover for the 10th time in 12 games as home chalk.

Betting trends

• The total has gone over in four of Baltimore's last six games on the road.
• Cincinnati is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games at home.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.