NFL Week 8 Picks: Odds Advice for Early Opening Spreads

NFL opening spreads are a bettor's best friend.

This is especially the case when it comes to Week 8 picks, as those who once again do some early homework and lay coin down on the initial lines coming out of Las Vegas can get ahead of the pack in a big way.

Those who find the errors in Las Vegas' ways wind up helping to move the spread itself, so jumping on some favorable lines early is a critical element each week.

As always, this week's initial batch of offerings has some issues. After the full slate, a few mistakes to jump all over are detailed.

NFL Week 8 Picks against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
San Diego at Denver (Thurs., Oct. 23)	DEN -6.5	DEN	Peyton Manning is on fire, and San Diego's defense is too injured.
Detroit at Atlanta	DET -4	DET	Detroit has one of the NFL's best defenses, which can make up for its offensive struggles.
St. Louis at Kansas City	KC -7	STL	St. Louis continues to fight and has the firepower to match Kansas City.
Houston at Tennessee	HOU -2	HOU	Houston's defense should have no issues with an up-and-down Tennessee offense.
Minnesota at Tampa Bay	TB -2.5	MIN	Tampa Bay is easily the worst team in the league.
Seattle at Carolina	SEA -4.5	SEA	See analysis below.
Baltimore at Cincinnati	EVEN	BAL	Cincinnati is a hobbled mess that hardly contained Baltimore in their first meeting.
Miami at Jacksonville	MIA -5	JAC	Jacksonville showed signs of life last week and has a potent offense when turnovers are limited.
Chicago at New England	NE -7.5	NE	Tom Brady is going to have a field day against an injured Chicago defense.
Buffalo at NY Jets	NYJ -2.5	BUF	Actually, New York may be the worst team in the league.
Philadelphia at Arizona	ARI -2.5	PHI	Nick Foles will have few issues against one of the league's worst pass defenses.
Oakland at Cleveland	CLE -7	CLE	The Cleveland offense will get back on track against a reeling Oakland defense.
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh	IND -1.5	IND	No team can contain Andrew Luck but especially not a flag-happy Pittsburgh unit.
Green Bay at New Orleans	NO -1.5	GB	See analysis below.
Washington at Dallas (Mon., Oct. 27)	DAL -9	DAL	This will prove yet another ugly prime-time affair as DeMarco Murray rolls.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 5 p.m. ET, Oct. 20. 

Surefire Odds to Bet

Seattle (-4.5) at Carolina

In a strange turn of events, the Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers are two of the most disappointing teams in recent weeks.

So much for the hype surrounding this one.

Seattle has lost two in a row, the first being a respectable loss to the rolling Dallas Cowboys, even if it did come at home. The second was a miserable outing against St. Louis in which the Rams were able to use a couple of savvy special teams tricks to nab a two-point win. 

Such is life for the defending champs, who get the best shot of each team.

Good thing Carolina's shot is not scary at all.

In that same span, the Panthers tied with Cincinnati and then got laughed out of the building at Green Bay, 38-17. Want a red flag? A blurb from a leader, as captured by David Newton of ESPN.com, should ring all sorts of alarm bells:

As ugly as the last two weeks have been, the Seahawks still rank among the league's best on the ground, mostly thanks to Marshawn Lynch (420 yards, three scores, 4.3 per-carry average).

The Panthers do very little well on the defensive side of the ball, especially against the rush, where the team ranks in the bottom 10. Not only did Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers throw for 255 yards and a trio of scores against the unit, but the Packers as a whole ran up 122 yards and a pair of scores on the ground.

An angry Seattle team is going to run wild Sunday, so expect this spread to get bigger as the week unfolds.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Panthers 17

Green Bay at New Orleans (-1.5)

So a team that has lost two of its last three and needed overtime to fend off 1-5 Tampa Bay at home in the single win of that stretch is the favorite over one of the hottest teams in the NFL?

That is the cue to get the bets in now.

Look, New Orleans is almost as difficult of a place as Seattle to get a win, but if there is a team that can pull it off, it would be Green Bay. Besides, the Seahawks have already taken a loss at home, so the Saints seem due.

Not only did Rodgers run up the aforementioned gaudy offensive numbers, but he says the team is not firing on all cylinders just yet.

"It's a lot more efficient," Rodgers said, per Genaro C. Armas of The Associated Press. "We're still not hitting some of our yardage and plays-per-game goals, but we're being very efficient."

Scary, right? Keep in mind that the Packers also tout one of the NFL's best overall pass defenses this season, something that will come in handy against a pass-happy New Orleans team. While that attack is usually formidable, Drew Brees has looked off as of late, too, throwing five interceptions over the course of his last three outings.

Keep in mind that the Saints are also very banged up. No. 1 corner Keenan Lewis, as well as starting tailback Pierre Thomas, starting center Jonathan Goodwin and explosive wideout Kenny Stills, among others, were all dealing with some form of injury issues last week, per ESPN.com's Mike Triplett.

This line is going to swing in Green Bay's favor before long, so be sure to get those slips in as soon as possible.

Prediction: Packers 36, Saints 27

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).