San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

In what some have called a potential Super Bowl preview, the San Francisco 49ers will hit the road for the second week in a row when they visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football. Both teams are coming off 31-17 road wins last week and covered the spread, and each used interception returns for touchdowns in the final minute to clinch the victories.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as six-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.6-25.8 Broncos

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The 49ers finally woke up at the end of the first half against the St. Louis Rams on Monday Night Football with an 80-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Colin Kaepernick to wide receiver Brandon Lloyd. They were trailing 14-3 at the time and could have fallen to 3-3 with a loss to the Rams. Instead, that one play turned the game around and helped San Francisco pull off the victory.

The team will definitely need to get off to a much better start against a much better Denver team, but that confidence builder proved what the 49ers are capable of and how good they can be this season. They are 5-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last seven meetings with the Broncos.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver has covered the spread in each of its past two games after starting out 0-3 ATS this season. The Broncos were lucky to cover last week’s victory against the Jets though, needing an interception from cornerback Aqib Talib with 15 seconds remaining to beat the 9.5-point line.

However, they will be back home for this matchup with San Francisco, and quarterback Peyton Manning will have an excellent opportunity to break Brett Favre’s all-time touchdown pass record. Manning needs two to tie and three to set the new mark, and he should be extra motivated to do it in prime time in front of his fans.

Denver is also 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games against NFC West opponents.

Smart pick

In what should be a high-scoring affair with the betting line exactly where it should be, there is only one recommended play here, and that's the over. Manning will likely break Favre’s record Sunday night, and both teams can put a lot of points up on the board. The over is 6-0 for the Broncos in their last six home games vs. NFC West foes and 3-1 for San Francisco in its past four road matchups with AFC West teams.

The 49ers showed last Monday that they do have a vertical passing game with Kaepernick, and their receiving corps with wide receivers Lloyd, Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree and Stevie Johnson plus tight end Vernon Davis might be the most underrated group in the NFL. They will hear how great the Denver receivers are all week, which should be all the motivation they need.

Watch for plenty of offensive fireworks and more than 50 points.

Betting trends

• San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when playing Denver.
• Denver is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.