Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The San Diego Chargers own 11 victories in their last 13 meetings with the rival Kansas City Chiefs, including sweeps of the season series the last two years and three covers in the last four games. The 5-1 Chargers will try to continue that dominance when they and the 2-3 Chiefs meet for 109th time, Sunday at Qualcomm Stadium.

Point spread: Chargers opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.8-29.7 Chargers

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

After starting 0-2 this season, the Chiefs then won two straight, including a romp over New England, before losing a tough game at San Francisco two weeks ago 22-17. Kansas City then had last week off.

The Chiefs had outgained and outrushed three opponents in a row, including Denver and the Patriots, the two teams that played in last year's AFC Championship Game, before losing the stats battle to the 49ers. On the season Kansas City only ranks 21st in total offense but fourth in rushing at 138 yards per game, 14th in total defense and fifth in points allowed, at just 20 per game.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers think they might be the best team in the AFC at the moment, and according to the numbers they might be right. San Diego ranks second in the AFC in scoring at 27 points per game and first in the AFC in points allowed at just 15 per game. Last week the Bolts trailed Oakland by a touchdown with 10 minutes to go, then scored the last 10 points of the game for a 31-28 victory.

San Diego got a second straight 100-yard rushing effort from rookie Branden Oliver, another solid performance from quarterback Philip Rivers and won the time of possession battle by a 37-23 margin. The Chargers rank third in the league in TOP, and that's a handy stat when trying to win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Smart Pick

The last time these teams met, in Week 17 of last year, Kansas City, which had already clinched a spot in the playoffs, gave San Diego, which needed a win to make the postseason, a tremendous game, eventually losing 27-24 in overtime. This time the Chiefs won't be sitting most of their regulars. So the pick here goes with Kansas City, plus the points.

Betting trends

• Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last seven games when playing San Diego
• The total has gone OVER in four of San Diego's last five games when playing Kansas City

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.