Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The Houston Texans will try to break a 10-game losing streak as road underdogs when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. The Texans are 4-6 against the spread (ATS) during that skid and will face a Steelers team that is just 1-4 ATS in its past five home games against AFC South opponents.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as four-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.8-17.2 Steelers

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston will have extra rest after playing the previous Thursday night and hopes to figure out what went wrong in that 33-28 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans allowed the Colts to jump out to a 24-0 lead in the first quarter before their furious rally fell just short.

They were able to run the ball well against Indy with running back Arian Foster totaling 109 rushing yards and two touchdowns, and he will again be the key to slowing the pace and moving the chains at Pittsburgh.

Houston does not have a quarterback who can win a shootout, so playing better defense and avoiding turnovers will be crucial. It’s no surprise that the Texans defense has limited the opposition to two touchdowns or less in each of their four covers this season, and that’s likely what it will take again here to keep the game close against the Steelers and beat the spread.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh has alternated wins and losses in all six games so far this season, which means the team is due for a victory here after falling to the Cleveland Browns 31-10 on the road last week as 2.5-point underdogs. The Steelers have played their last two away from home and lost their previous game at Heinz Field 27-24 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as seven-point favorites in Week 4.

To say they are desperate in this spot might be overreacting a little bit, but Pittsburgh definitely needs a home victory against Houston to avoid falling even further behind Cleveland, the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North. The Browns, Ravens and Bengals all have winnable games, and the Steelers will know exactly where they stand before kickoff.

Smart pick

The Texans and the Steelers both have identical records at 3-3 and are at a crossroads one third of the way through the season. Houston has dropped two games in a row and three of four following a 2-0 start while Pittsburgh has struggled with consistency, looking good one week and bad another.

The safer bet between the two is the Steelers, who should be extra motivated to play back at home in prime time after being on the road for a couple of games.

The Texans are an offensively challenged team that is limited with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. While Houston head coach Bill O’Brien likes to play it safe with Fitzpatrick right now, he is not the answer and will not be able to win a game like this on the road. Bet Pittsburgh to get back on track with an easy home win.

Betting trends

• Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.
• Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last six games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.