Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cleveland Browns are not known as road warriors, but they are 7-1-1 against the spread over the last nine times they've been lined as favorites away from home. On the other side of the betting spectrum, the Jacksonville Jaguars are just 1-7-1 over the last nine times they've been lined as underdogs at home. The 0-6 Jags are home dogs again for their game with the 3-2 Browns Sunday at EverBank Field.

Point spread: Browns opened as three-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.6-10.5 Browns

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns are off to a 3-2 start straight up and 3-0-2 ATS, and they just beat Pittsburgh by the largest margin in 25 seasons. Cleveland exploded for three touchdowns in nine minutes in the second quarter against the Steelers, and later led 31-3 on its way to the 31-10 victory and cover as a field-goal favorite.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer, with whom the Browns are now 6-2 SU and 6-0-2 ATS as a starter, only threw 17 passes, completing just eight, but for 217 yards and one score. Meanwhile, the Cleveland ground game produced 158 yards. The Brownies are only a half game out of first place in the AFC North, and their next three games come against Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay.

Is it too early to think about the playoffs?

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jaguars are still winless, but they've given good fights the last couple of times out. Two weeks ago they only trailed Pittsburgh by a point going into the fourth quarter, before falling 17-9, and last week they trailed Tennessee by six points into the fourth quarter, before losing 16-14.

Jacksonville actually outgained the Titans, 379-290, but came up a blocked 55-yard field goal short of its first victory of the season. Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles just had his best day as a pro so far, completing 32 of 46 passes for 336 yards and a touchdown, so perhaps he's progressing. Finally, the Jags just beat the Browns last December 32-28 in Cleveland.

Smart Pick

The Browns aren't favored on the road often, but when they are, as the figures above testify to, they usually come out with the cash. The Jags, on the other hand, just can't be trusted yet.

So the smart money on this game comes down on Cleveland, minus the points.

Betting trends

• Cleveland is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in four of Jacksonville's last six games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.