Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Green Bay is on a nice run as home chalk, going 9-3-1 against the spread in its last 13 games as a Lambeau Field favorite. Carolina, meanwhile, apparently enjoys being a dog on the road, going 6-4-1 straight up and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 spots getting points away from home.

The 4-2 Packers host the 3-2-1 Panthers Sunday afternoon.

Point Spread: The Packers opened as 6.5-point favorites. The total was 49 as of Tuesday.

Odds Shark Computer Pick: Packers 27.4, Panthers 23.3

Why the Panthers Can Cover the Spread

The Panthers just went into Cincinnati and gave the Bengals all they could handle, tying the game on a field goal at the buzzer, then later getting lucky when Cincy kicker Mike Nugent shanked a short field goal that would have won the game in overtime. The result was a 37-37 tie.

After struggling to run the ball earlier this season, Carolina managed 147 yards on the ground against the Bengals. Quarterback Cam Newton rushed for 107 yards on 17 carries.

The Panthers also won the time-of-possession battle by four minutes, which helped them cover the spread as seven-point dogs.

If Newton can do more of the same and get a little extra help from his friends against an iffy Packers defense, they'll have a chance at the upset Sunday.

Why the Packers Can Cover the Spread

The Packers are heating up with three straight victories, with the most recent being a hard-fought 27-24 decision at Miami won on an Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass on the last play of the game.

After struggling to move the ball on the ground earlier this season, Green Bay got the better of a second straight foe on the ground and won the time-of-possession battle by over 14 minutes. Doing those two things is usually a good way to win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Also, Rodgers may have found an emerging weapon last week in rookie wide receiver Davante Adams, who caught six balls for 77 yards. That included a key 12-yard gain on a fake spike, which set up the game-winning score.

Smart Pick

If Adams is going to provide a steady third option to the Packers' passing game behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and the running game feeds off that, Green Bay is going to be tough to stop from here on out.

Carolina's defense is struggling, allowing 140 yards per game on the ground.

The pick here goes with the Packers, minus the points.

Betting Trends

• Carolina is 14-4-1 SU in its last 19 games.
• Green Bay is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury and line movement updates.